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Thursday, October 19, 2006

IS CHAVEZ GOING DOWNHILL? - SE LE ACABO EL CUARTO DE HORA A CHAVEZ?

Has Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez reached his peak? Will his political star begin to fade following his latest setbacks at the United Nations and his failure to get his protégés elected in Peru's and Ecuador's first-round elections? Read the full column here, find out who is feeding Chavez's megalomania, and let us know what YOU think.

19 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

It can be true, perhaps Chavez has peeked. But, you should consider that Chavez has shown a way that others will follow. The way is “The no over-estimation of the American Power”. He couldn’t win, but the USA candidate has neither won and the solution will be negotiated.

I’d like to ask you if whether the american empire has also picked and if it’s golden days has gone…

In some articles you has shown a clear anti Chavez, anti Lula, anti Evo and anti Kirchner line. I try to infer what’s impulsing you? What kind of Human Rights Abuses do you see in Venezuela and Bolivia????? That’ lying Andres. The media in Latin America is not free not for goverments abuses. Is not free because their own partners interests!!!

The most important legacy of these leaders is the defense of the national interests agains these corporations and the empire who care of them. It’s seems you are fighting for the american corporations. The Herald directors may be proud of you.

You named Rosales, the presidential candidate for Venezuela. He is offering a credit card called “Mi Negrita” with $ 500. But upto you and the rest of the empire soldiers he’s not a Populist politician.

The hypocrisy of american journalists and politicians has no end. Critices Chavez and say nothing of the Saudi Arab King or the golpist Pakistan President Musharraf. Defend the press liberty outside but not inside.


It’s sad to read articles like your last one.


Greetings.


Ruben P.
Rosario - Argentina

1:33 PM  
Blogger Monsefuano said...

Hello,
i invited you to look an interesting peruvian blog:
http://reservamoral.blogspot.com.

Regards,

Limberg,
PERU

1:54 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Andres, I do not believe Chavez is down the hill. His rethorical approach has coped very well with a surprising realism on human nature and he is certainly the best card in next venezuelan elections.Rosales has not much to offer to counterbalance with a minimum of effectiveness. I lived there for a while and I think the vast majority of population, especially workers,farmers and part of intelligentsia and middle class give him a strong support for many different reasons. Rosales does no good suggesting he would cut off cuban assistance when it means public health and education. By doing that he is giving lots of ammo to Chavez. I believe Chavez will win this time.

4:20 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sr Oppenheimer,me gusta leer sus articulos sobre politica internacional; pero permitame decirle que como guru politico es un fracaso. Aun recuerdo su libro sobre la hora final que no llega 12 años mas tarde. Me temo que usted no se ha dado cuenta que estamos viviendo unos tiempos diferentes en Venezuela y en toda America Latina donde la izquierda, por primera vez en su historia esta disputando seriamente cada proceso electoral. Me gustaria sugerirle un estudio profundo sobre las causas de este fenomeno pues hasta ahora solo ha arañado la superficie.

4:31 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No es un tema de derechas o izquierdas!!! Se trata de un proceso de descolonización. Latinoamérica, pese a ser libre desde hace casi 200 años sigue funcionando como un virreynato.

Pese a que se critica a Chavez, muchas de sus propuestas buscan los mismos objetivos que los planteados por Fernando Henrique Cardozo o Ricardo Lagos en sus paises. Pero cada pais tiene una realidad y posibilidades diferentes. Es sumamente enriquecedora la busqueda de un modelo propio de desarrollo.

Estos sectores anti-castristas junto con personajes nefastos como Roger Noriega, Otto Reich, y empresarios periodísticos como Gustavo Cisneros y otros, quieren seguir imponiendo su modelo neoliberal totalmente excluyente al resto de Latinoamerica.

Más que fin del cuarto de hora esto es solo el comienzo. Con o sin Chavez, Sudamerica camina hacia una nueva independencia.


Saludos cordiales

Ruben P.
Rosario, Argentina

9:24 PM  
Blogger roberto e said...

well,
chavez peaks when oil peaks,
and if for whatever reasons his Cuban troops keep him alive,

i believe that Raul Castro will instruct the Cuban run DISIP
to do whatever is neccesary to make sure Chavez wins re-election

as for S.A virtual independence
my dear Reuben from Rosario,
independence starts with taking responsibility and concentrating
less on blaming others.
I do enjoy many of your thoughts ,they are a consequence of mistakes by elites in both SA and USA and I do believe in keeping them on their toes and accountable,
thank you for your views ,
once in a while you are right!
regards

10:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

from Paul Thorsen
PThorsen240@aol.com

Chavez isn't going anywhere. Just as in the USA, people vote in whoever promises to steal from the rich and to give that money to them. Americans don't want to work anymore. Latin Americans won't work unless they absolutely have to do provide for their families.

1:02 AM  
Blogger Samuel Logan said...

Rosales has engineered a strong campaign, but he's still 13 points behind Chavez. I doubt Chavez will give up power easily, no matter what Venezuelans decide.

Outside Venezuela, his influence appears to have planed-out. But it's easy to arrive at this conclusion when you only ready major news papers. Talk to the people, visit the capitals, take a hard look at the realities of life down here, and you'll find there's still plenty of room for Chavez's influence to grow.

If he's an astute politician, and if he manages to get past the December elections without sparking a wave of violence in Caracas, Chavez needs to turn a corner to press what I consider to be an advantage in the region.

He needs to govern, to show some leadership, and to show some follow through. If chooses not to focus on the details of being a effective political leader, he runs the risk of wide spread disillusionment that follows in the wake of the hundreds of thousands of hopeful individuals - Latinos, Gringos, Europeos, quien sea - that are watching him, waiting for him to do more than put his money where his mouth is and make something happen. Venezuela is the first place to begin.

There's no reason to belive that Chavez can't work with Garcia, Uribe, Calderon, or other center-right leaders who have problems with poverty, hunger, sickness, etc.

But there's plenty of reason to belive that if Chavez doesn't do something soon, the disillusionment he creates will cause a fall out much worse than the most awful decisions made by the "Washington Consensus".

I'm not for or against Hugo. He has carved out a measure of regional influence for himself. It remains to be seen if he can do something with it.

2:49 PM  
Blogger A.M. Mora y Leon said...

I think it's all over for this Brutal Leftist Thug. The only way he'll be able to hold power now is at the point of a gun or nuke. He must be praying he can rely on the military because in light of the Ortega prison break, I don't think he has even that. This Thug is running out of cash, out of goodwill, out of authority and out of time.

12:46 AM  
Anonymous Andres said...

Andres,

creo que tienes razón en que Chávez está acabado en el ambito internacional. Su posibilidad de convertirse en lider de presidentes populista-oportunistas murió cuando sus candidatos en Méjico y Perú perdieron. Sin embargo, su popularidad dentro de Venezuela todavía es grande y seguramente ganará las elecciones.

Algo que me llama la atención en los comentarios que he leido es que confirman el hecho de que la mayoría de latinoamericanos cree que el capitalismo y la economía de mercado son estadounidenses.

La economía de mercado y el capitalismo se inició antes de que existiera USA, es en general un modelo desarrollado en el mundo occidental y es la razón por la que occidente salio del subdesarrollo antes que el resto del mundo. USA es simplemente el país más exitoso dentro del grupo de paises capitalistas. Yo no creo que Europa, Australia, Japón, nuevazelanda, Candá, etc. se consideren colonia norteamericana por el hecho de ser capitalistas, o porque las empresas americanas inviertan aya.

EEUU es rico y sudamerica es pobre no porque norteamerica nos aplique su modelo capitalista para esclavizarnos, sino porque ellos lo aplican bien en su país y los sudamericanos no lo aplicamos bien. EEUU no se hizo rico en 20 años, demoró 200 años en ser lo que es hoy y lo logró gracias a su economía de mercado y a que ahorró al generar capital y riqueza. USA no nos hace pobres, la gran mayoría de la población latianoamericana es la que nos mantiene en la pobreza al apoyar a gobernantes populistas que hipotecan nuestro futuro a cambio de un falso bienestar cortoplasista, atacando a los ("ricos") que logran acumular capital y gastando los ahorros o recursos naturales del país, o peor aún endeudándolo.

En vez de seguir el mal ejemplo de habladores locos e irresponsables como Chávez sólo por oponernos a USA tratando de darle la contra en un modelo que ellos no inventaron sino que adoptaron y el cual los condujo al éxito, deberíamos verlos como un ejemplo a seguir.

La riqueza de EEUU no es la que nos mantiene en la pobreza, es la que nos hace notar lo incapaces que somos para generar nuestro propio bienestar. En vez de tirarle piedritas al que va ganando la carrera deberíamos tratar de aprender por qué va primero.

2:31 AM  
Blogger ow said...

Andres,

This is not one of your better posts. First you repeat this non-sense about Chavez having given away "billions" of dollars despite having no reference for this other than opposition political parties. And really, buying and then selling foriegn government bonds constitutes giving away money? So when a Latin American government purchases a U.S. Treasury certificate it is just "giving" the U.S. money. I think you should reason this through a little more.

As to Chavez having "peaked", that may or may not be true in the international arena. But internally his popularity is arguably at its highest level ever. Just today we get more polls by well known Venezuelan polling firms such as Sejias and Consultores 21 pointing out that Chavez still has a wide lead and that lead is holding steady or even widening. Further, they also point out that a large majority of Venezuelans think the situation of the country is good and has improved under Chavez and they also say their own personal situation has improved. Hardly the conditions that make people want to "throw the bumbs out". You can find the polls posted here:

http://oilwars.blogspot.com/2006/10/doing-well-and-feeling-good-about-it.html

And of course these polls even precede Rosales infamous remarks of later last week where he referred to people supporting Chavez as parasites during an interview with a Miami TV show. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

9:11 PM  
Anonymous Andres said...

OW,

No es la oposición la que dice que Chavez gasta miles de millones en el exterior. Es Chavez quien lo dice, él mismo promociona la cantidad de barriles de petroleo subvencionado que regala al caribe, centroamerica y EEUU, él mismo promociona el hecho de que va a regalar dinero a Bolivia para construir bases militares, él mismo hace propaganda de los medicos, pagados por el gobierno venezolano, que manda a África... Desempolva tu calculadora multiplica esa cantidad por los precios de esos bienes que Chávez "desinteresadamente" regala y verás que el resultado son miles de millones. Que suerte tiene Venezuela no? ¿Toda su población mejora su nivel de vida y encima les sobra miles de millones para regalar? nunca he estado en Venezuela pero no me la creo, ni aunque me regales un par de millones de petrodólares

9:24 PM  
Blogger Elias Lopez Gross said...

Don't play the dumb card, ow, by asking for "references" to show that Chavez has spent millions of petrodollars financing his campaign for a seat at the UN.

Even YOU don't believe that bullshit. What do you want? RECEITS!

Let me break it down for you:

La suma llega a $1.100 millones -solo en acuerdos políticos e incluye $20 millones para el hospital de Uruguay dentro de los $400 millones donados a ese país desde que asumió Tabaré Vázquez; $260 millones para una autopista en Jamaica y $17 millones para reparar los aeropuertos de Antigua y Dominica.

En esta isla se invirtieron -además de los acuerdos de cortesía de Petrocaribe- unos $12 millones en viviendas.

Los $3,8 millones en ayudas a Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Mali y Níger. Bolivia recibió $140 millones en donaciones para educación.

No pasan desapercibidos los $3.600 millones invertidos en la recompra de bonos de las deudas de Argentina, Ecuador y Bolivia. Mientras el país se cae a pedazos por la desidia y su infraestructura es la más deteriorada de la región...

¿Para llegar sólo a unos 77 votos duros, con una campaña millonaria y captando más la reacción escondida anti-Bush que el respeto por un país?

2:57 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I do believe that Mr. Chavez is going downhill and pretty fast, when you watch the different "mitines" held by both candidates you can notice the following:
Rosales can organize up to 2 or 3 of these gatherings per day, while Chavez needs to transport his followers from meeting to meeting, takes time and a couple of hundred of buses.
We haven't heard a plan to run the country from Mr. Chavez, all we have heard is "please give me more time" heck 8 years is more than enough.
Rosales has not talked about shutting down the missions organized by this regime, they have always existed. remember when mision robinson was called ACUDE, and so on.
The stupid idea of a revolution is that all institution have to be refounded, well Mr. Chavez has changed the name of every freakin institution in this country.
As for our friend Ruben from argentina, if he so much likes Mr. Chavez or any other country that wants him, heck take him in, postulate him as your ruler. but here in Venezuela we have to many needs to be giving our money away. Just to follow a dream. I would like to remind the leftist of latin america that Simon Bolivar was a well raised and instructed man, and that his original quarrel was against Napoleon,not against the King of Spain, the Mantuanos originally wanted to be equal to their peers born in Spain, to have their nobility titles, unfortunately this could not happen in a war torn country like Venezuela, remember that this country lived the 19th century sumerged in bloody civil wars where any feudal lord would pick his pheasants and proclaim himself a general and march into the first city hall that he could torch down.
We stopped being a banana republic when oil was discovered, and yes the United States, the UK and the Dutch primarly contributed to keep Caudillos in power to gain stability, so they could exploit the wealths of the country.
common practice of the late 19th and early 20th century. but we can't go back in time an fix it.
I do believe in social nivelation, but it should always be upwards never downward. I do believe that every citizen of this world is entlited to a name, a nationality an education and a decent chance to prosper and raise a family.
Mr. Chavez has turned the Venezuelans into refugees, you see us living in countries we used to visit in the holidays. nowadays we have a massive emigration of our younger educated generations, running away from Mr. Chavez and his hard left.
Mr Chavez is a by product of the social decomposition of Venezuela, a country with more deaths than Iraq due to crime. Rich polititians before Chavez and worst now.
And now that Mr Chavez is trying to steer hard left, some people in this country don't understand what is really a Cuban style communism, the see it as something poetic, my friend hunger is not poetic. and giving away our wealth and comprimising the future of the venezuelans is not poetic, nor love. So I must tell our worldwide parasites sorry Venezuela is close for repairs, when every single Venezuelan child has a school, a full meal in his belly, and a future to look forward ws will allow our president to do charity, meanwhile we can't so with this message all I can say is ATREVETE

3:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Según mi modesta opinión. no es a Chavez a quien se le acabó el cuarto de hora.

Haciendo un breve resumen mundial del último año, se les ha acabado (o está por hacerlo) el cuarto de hora a:
1) Aznar
2) Berlusconi
3) Tony Blair
4) G. Bush
5) Ariel Sharon
6) C. Menem

Fuera del "Time is out!" en común que tienen todos estos personajes, ¿coinciden en algo más? Sí; todos ellos apoyaron la descabellada aventura del imperio norteamericano en Irak. No los pudo salvar ni siquiera la condena a Saddam, el cual en el momento de la sentencia se mostró mucho mas digno que esa galería de siniestros personajes.

Nelson Rodriguez, de Argentina

2:17 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

La encuestadora Penn Schoen and Berland presentó este miércoles su último sondeo de opinión, según el cual el candidato Rosales redujo su diferencia con respecto al Presidente Chávez en 6%. De acuerdo a esta firma, el candidato oficial cuenta con 48% del respaldo y Rosales con el 42%. "

Ojalá de verdad gane Rosales, ustedes hablan sin saber porque no viven aqui. Aquí hoy por ejemplo sale un negocio mil millonario de "compras" de cables electricos a Cuba. Y rsulta que Cuba NO produce cables electricos.

¿A dónde van a parar nuestras reservas? ¿Cómo es posible que no hayan logrado rebajar la pobreza en 8 AÑOS ¡ocho! con los recursos económicos de este país? La división, su discurso clasista, o estas conmigo o contra mi, la corrupción, en fin, que no ha hecho absolutamente nada por nosotros, desde la A hasta la E vivimos peor que antes.

Muchos lo ven solo de manera politica. Nosotros tenemos que calarnos esta revolucion que no queremos ni pedimos. Tramposos y corruptos

6:57 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I consider Hugo Chavez to be a highly charismatic leader.
I do not see Hugo going downhill..
unless the american embassy plans
something against him.

The only country in the world
which cannot have military coups,the U.S is solely because
the U.S is the only country
where there is no american
embassador.
LOL

6:46 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Senor Oppenheimer,perdoneme por decirle esto,pero usted no es visionario politico.
Latinoamerica esta viviendo grandes
transformaciones.
Sus ciudadanos estan escogiendo
presidentes izquiedistas que sean
capaces de resolver los problemas
de las mayorias.
Y las mayorias en Latinoamerica
no son los ricos.

Esto es una verdad que muchos
en Estados Unidos se rehusan a
aceptar.
Ya era hora que sucediera.
saludos cordiales !

6:49 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No estoy de acuerdo.Estados Unidos tambien es pobre.Es mas podria decir que existen grandes contrastes en EEUU.
Desde los billonarios que viven
en Nueva York ,California ,Texas o Florida.
El resto de EEUU vive luchando por sobrevivir.He visto igual pobreza o peor en EEUU que en mi pais.

Una cosa es ser pobre y otra muy distinta es que el gobierno de
EEUU divulge que se estan convirtiendo en pobres poco a poco.
Creo que ni los mismos norteamericanos se estan dando cuenta de ello.

Y encima vienen a hablar de pobreza en Latinoamerica.
Pobreza hay en todos los paises.
Por Favor !

6:56 AM  

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