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Thursday, September 07, 2006

TEN REASONS WHY MEXICO IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STABLE

Contrary to forecasts that Mexico's President-elect Felipe Calderón will not be able to rule effectively because of defeated leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador's vow to make the country ungovernable, there are 10 powerful reasons to believe that Calderón is likely to weather the storm. First, while Calderón won the July 2 election by only 234,000 votes, he will have the largest legislative bloc in both houses of Congress. Sure, he will still need votes from other parties to pass major reforms, but he will have significantly greater representation in Congress than outgoing President Vicente Fox. Read the full column here. I'm interested in your comments.

20 Comments:

Blogger roberto e said...

Good article, Yes he may have to offer the left something, but if the PRI or "PRI like"
continues to control Hacienda then the sweeping under the carpet of the past banking crisis and other scandals like what really happened to the money lent to Cuba will continue.

Calderon has to have at least a couple examples of big shots that need to pay their bills,or go to jail
otherwise it will be seen as more of the same

He needs to create opportunity and to reform the banking sector's outrageous lending practices/rates

He needs to reach out to the left not just in some cultural BS way
like the rulers have been doing since the PRI took over
but in some concrete way especially as American Corn is about to destroy
what's left of the self-sufficiency of the vast majority of the campesinos.
THere has to be legislation to help the Micro empresas
Presently the same 20 guys /grupos get all the bank loans at low rates evrybody else pays from
30-100%

Good LUck too him

7:23 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any country is only as good as its people. You can implement all the correct policies you want to and have backing from all sectors of the government, but if you don't have a significant amount of honest, hard working, high integrity people, that society will fail. You Latin Americans always want to blame the USA/"Anglos" for everything wrong in Latin America. Try looking in the mirror first.

Paul Thorsen
PThorsen240@aol.com

10:47 PM  
Blogger roberto e said...

Mr. T
you are confusing me,
I do not see anyone blaming the US in either Mr O's article nor in my response. American corn imports is a consequence of Nafta and it is a tax ( corp.welfare) subsidy of US Agri/Buss.
I am confused
please enlighten us or are you catching up from another article

I happen to agree with you on L.A. nations taking responsibility

But its hard to do in the case of corn,wheat,sugar,oranges,tomatoes and other US govt welfare subsidized crops that can be grown cheaper elsewhere except for US tax subsidies.
PLease I paid almost six figures in US taxes last year from my job and investments so please enlighten me
why should you and I subsidize others that then take that subsidy and invest in Brazilian farmland like so many US corps. and US farm families have done(read aboout it in Forbes about 3-4 months ago)
Things are not as cut and dried as you may think
Respectfully
Regards

12:10 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Roberto, e-mail me and we can discuss the issue further.
For your information, no country ever got rich off agrciculture. It's producing high technology, big money items like airplanes and automobiles that makes countries rich. The USA didn't become rich by producing coffee.
The USA is reluctant to invest in Latin America because as soon as we get the business up and running, you Latios then steal the corporation under the euphemism of "nationalization". The historic legacy of the Spanish people is nothing but theft. Theft of gold is what brought you people to the Americas. It's what brings you people to the USA: ripping off the USA/Anglos.

http://www.uscubacommission.org/history3.html
March 3, 1959 - The Cuban government nationalizes the Cuban Telephone Company, an affiliate of ITT, and immediately reduces telephone rates.
January 1960 - Cuba expropriates 70,000 acres of property owned by U.S. sugar companies which includes 35,000 acres of pasture and forest land owned by United Fruit, (now United Brands and Chiquita Brands). United Brands owns an additional 235,000 acres of land in Cuba and several hundred thousand acres in Guatemala. In 1954 the government of Guatemala threatened to expropriate all of United Fruit's land holdings in that country.
June 6, 1960 - Cuba requests the two US oil refineries, Texaco and Esso, and one British refinery, Shell, to process a shipment of Russian crude oil. The companies refuse and on June 28 Cuba orders the refineries nationalized.
July 5, 1960 - Cuba orders the nationalization of all US businesses and commercial properties in Cuba.
August 6, 1960 - Cuba nationalizes all U.S. owned industrial and agrarian enterprises.
September 17, 1960 - Cuba nationalizes all US banks including First National City Bank of New York, First National Bank of Boston, and Chase Manhattan Bank.
October 24, 1960 - In response to the U.S. declaration on October 19 that it will impose an embargo, Cuba announces that it will nationalizes all remaining U.S. property on the island.


Paul Thorsen
PThorsen240@aol.com

3:18 AM  
Anonymous Andrés said...

Mr. Oppenheimer, it's great Felipe Calderon had officialy been proclamed president of Mexico. But the most important fact to consider is that for the left, democracy is democracy only when they win elecions. And Lopez Obrador was not the exception to this.

The case of Lopez Obrador showed that the instauration of a second-round system for the election of the president must be taken into consideration; the same happens with the idea of replacing the presidential system with a parliamentary one.

12:20 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What happen in Mexico is nothing new. It is the same scam that happens every four years. Corruption, deshonesty and lack of morals among everybody, I mean: government, citizens. private industries, bussinesses, banks. Just everybody. Mexico is a terrible country but beautiful. I am a shame to be mexican.

12:40 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey anonymous, it isn't just Mexico, it's all of Spanish speaking Latin America: "Corruption, dishonesty and lack of morals among everybody, I mean: government, citizens. private industries, bussinesses, banks. Just everybody."
My theory as to why that is is that Spain dumped its criminals and other derelicts onto their colonies in the Americas. I pity any shy, quiet, honest, studious kid who has to grow up in Spanish speaking Latin America. Such a person would NOT be accepted in macho Latin America.

Paul Thorsen
PThorsen240@aol.com

10:04 PM  
Blogger Aleksander Boyd said...

Paul Thorsen, you're one racist and utterly confused man, for I could say exactly the same thing about the Lib-Dems of your country, or Labour in Britain, or Zapatero's PSOE in Spain...

Besides what sort of people you think end up in North America's shores? The intellectual classes from Britain and France? Read you history mate, before making an ass of yourself.

11:27 AM  
Blogger Lili said...

Thorsen- you are a comical character and seem to not want to look beyond your own nose of how the U.S. developed BOTH positive and negative characteristics (you like to exclude the MANY negative things that formed a part of U.S. culture as well- illegal appropriation of lands, squattering, massive violence, mobs, illegal drugs/drug trade, etc...). HOW CONVENIENT. And please do not attempt to childishly convert this into some "Anti-American/blame" attack, as you continously respond in this manner.

As far as the problems/politics of Latin America, your shallow simplistic ideas and analyses of the region are of high school stature. The complexities of each nation, let alone the region, need years of dedicated and objective analysis, something you are obviously incapable of...

I actually get a kick out of reading your posts. They are almost childlike in nature.

Latin Americans don't come to "take" anything from anyone- they come and work hard to build their lives like anyone else. The global community demands increased trade, but what they do not want is the people- too bad. All of Europe's poor came to the America's to make money off of the region, now it's the people of the America's who need to move around and figure out how best to survive in this system built to EXCLUDE THEM. YOU SIR, are a part of that, whether you like it or not.

1:52 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Andres you hit the nail on the head. Personally, as I tell my Mexican friends, I don't believe AMLO has much room for complaint. He knows the rules of engagement in Mexican politics and certainly pulled his own share of dirty tricks within his own sphere of influence. Nor, did he arrive at his position as Mayor of Mexico City by being pure as the driven snow. IMHO it's a wash.

His support appears to be primarily in the D.F. Many Mexicans with whom I talk come from the North and other states. These are working people whose support went primarily to PAN not PRD with little or no support for PRI. One reason for a lack of better support for PRD outside Mexico City is that many of these people have an abiding dislike for chilangos. Had PRD picked a candidate from another area they might have won.

11:20 AM  
Blogger sofla100 said...

Calderon may be America's pick for Mexico, but he will not get any further then Fox if he does not make some radical changes. Mexico, like most of Central and South America, still does not have a viable enough middle class. The excessive concentration of wealth amoung a few at the top, many of whom are perceived as an elite cut off from the people, is what fuels the continued unrest and revolutions in all these countries. Chavez is one example, the people became radicalized because their lot never improved. Also, programs like privatizing public services and the like won't work because this just fuel corruption. Calderon faces a massive challenge. The teachers, the Indians, the corruption and the perception that the election was again stolen. It will be a hard job.

11:33 AM  
Blogger sofla100 said...

Calderon faces an enormous challange. Because virtually all the wealth in Mexico is concentrated amoung a few at the top, the people are becoming radicalized. NAFTA has only made things worse. Calderon must find a way to develop a stable middle class. It will be a tough job.

11:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

from Paul Thorsen
PThorsen240@aol.com

Lili, lease post your e-mail for further debate via e-mail. This forum is to discuss what Andres writes about.
Yes, you Spanish speaking Latin Americans come to steal the USA, you don't come to join the USA as all other immigrants do. Case in point:
1) you people refuse to speak English
2) you people boo US international sports teams
3) you people can't bear to give your kids American mames. My parents didn't give me a name like Lars or Per. They didn't insist I learn Norwegian and then demand I use it at all times and do my best to force the Norwegian language on the USA. Even though we were the first Europeans in the Americas by hundreds of years. You Hispanicks don't come here and create your own jobs or your own societies as my ancestors did. You force your way into already estblished societies and steal jobs created by Asians and Whites. The historical legacy of the Hispanick race of people is nothing but theft.

from "From Columbus to Castro", by Eric Williams, copyright 1970.
page 24
It was gold which determined the location of Spanish settlements, which led to their concentration on the Greater Antilles, except those which had strategic significance for the protection of trade routes.

1:53 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ah, Mr. Thorsen, I don't want to get into it with you but somehow I believe neither Eric Sevareid or Harold Stassen who were both of Norwegian descent would share your viewpoints.

2:46 PM  
Blogger Samuel Logan said...

There are ten - or more - reasons why Mexico will remain stable. I can name one reason why it will not. Organized crime is eating away at Mexico from the inside. Neither presidential candidate brought it up during his campaign. Mexican papers rarly publish news about the Mexican drug trade. No one seems to blame the US for excessive - an increasing - demand. And the role Mexican org. crime plays in the cocaine trade in Latin America is destroying Central American nations too. I think it would behoove Mr. Oppenheimer and his supporters to acknowledge that Mexico has a serious security problem, one, and, two, start a serious dialogue about how Calderon will deal with it.

7:25 PM  
Blogger Quito said...

Mr. Oppenheimer,
I agree with your point of view, Calderon is going to enter a country with social problems but it's different when you are backed up by a good stable economy and with the majority of mexicans agreeing with the actions you are going to take.
I'm glad that AMLO choose to waste his high political capacity; im sure that if he had accepted his defeat and had an active role as a watchdog he could've had enormous chances in winning the 2012 elections.
The "if your enemy is making a mistake don't interrupt him" policy that PAN is taking is good and smart but they need to be realists, at one moment they'll have to intervene in this conflict with or without public force.
Mexico was close to a populist Echeverria kind of government, I hope this was only a scare and a lesson to be learned.
I hope we (mexicans) learn from this episode and help the new presidency to advance with coresponsibility to an improved country.

1:50 AM  
Anonymous Andrés-Arg said...

Although I am Argentine, I hoper Mexico can finally find the right way to prosperity. I know that the Aztec nation still has to face with lots of problems, but the solution to them does not rely on more State injerence.

And let's see if the false democratic Lopez Obrador understands what democracy means.

10:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Mr. Thorensen,
The greatness in freedom of speech is that even people like you get a chance to speak their piece. Unfortunately, your piece is small, biased and embarrasing.
It's good you've read one book. You should try reading quite a few more. And, you also must learn to read between the lines. But in order to do this you first have to acquire a certain amount of culture.
I don't include my email as I have no interest to correspond with you. I wish you the best.

1:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Every in Mexico and in Latin America knew that Mr Calderon was
the US embassy candidate.
That is why he won.

Not only that.
Mr Calderon won only with less
than 1 % of the votes.
When Lopez Obrador asked for
a recounting of the votes..Mr Calderon refused.

In Latin America that is a classic
example of the perpetrator of the
electoral fraud.
If Mr Calderon refused to recount
the votes...then,he hides something.

Calderon is as corrupt as any
politician.
It makes me laugh how many
"gringo experts in Latin American
polititics" when they do not even
speak spanish nor live in Latin America.They are so clueless in
Latin American affairs.

Just wait 5 years and you will
find a "much hated and highly corrupted" Mr Calderon.
Just wait and see.

7:22 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Calderon won't solve the problems of Mexico.
The root of corruption is not
solved with miracles coming from
one single man.

The corruption mountain that happens in Mexico has been built
since they separated from Spain.

I find silly and pollyana thinking
Calderon is going to improve
Mexico's conditions.
That is something only americans
believe on.

7:27 AM  

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