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Tuesday, July 11, 2006

VENEZUELA: IF TRUE, THIS WILL BE A FIRST

A story reportedly carried by the Venezuelan daily El Mundo on July 6 quotes an opposition electoral expert as saying that the voting registry in the state of Miranda lists 1.834.000 people living in the same home address. Must be a pretty crowded place! We are checking out the story, which you can read in the comments section.

21 Comments:

Blogger Andres Oppenheimer said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Un millón de electores viven en una casa
Gisela Rodríguez V.
El partido COPEI descubrió que en la quinta Margabel, ubicada en El Llanito, estado Miranda, viven 1.834.000 personas según los datos del Registro Electoral.
Todos estos ciudadanos "hacinados" en esta casa votan en Mérida, Táchira, Apure, Nueva Esparta, Yaracuy y otros estados.
El coordinador de Asuntos Electorales de COPEI, Enrique Naime, adelantó algunos datos del análisis técnico realizado por esta tolda política al Registro Electoral y el cual será dado a conocer este jueves.
Igualmente el estudio reveló que hay 1.734.489 jóvenes inscritos en el Registro Electoral sin dirección y cerca de 4 millones de personas con direcciones incompletas.
Un dato que consideran alarmante es que en el estado Monagas todos los extranjeros registrados carecen de domicilio.
El estudio preliminar realizado por los socialcristianos no ha tocado el tema de los fallecidos, ni los menores de edad. En una segunda fase de trabajo cruzarán los datos del RE con el Seguro Social y el Instituto Nacional de Estadística.
Naime, en compañía de los demás miembros del Comité Nacional dará a conocer el estudio y entregará el Registro Electoral con direcciones a los precandidatos presidenciales, la OEA; la Unión Europea, Súmate, Queremos Elegir, Grupo La Colina, Universidades y periodistas.

Fuente: Diario El Mundo.
6 de julio de 2006

6:06 PM  
Blogger paco said...

Its a shame. Its similar to what used to happen in Mexico. Here in Mexico when PRI ruled all kind of weird stuff happened. The death participated in the elections misteriously, to mention one example. PRI in Mexico and Chavez is a proof that revolutions cause two things: concentrate the power or nothing.

9:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Andres, the corruption, chaos, crime and violence in Latin America never ever ceases to amaze me. It's just the norm for the region. A society is only as good as its people and Spain dumped its criminals and other derelicts onto their colonies in the Americas thus accounting for all the problems there today.
ALWAYS available for debate by e-mail,
Paul Thorsen
PThorsen240@aol.com

10:20 PM  
Blogger A.M. Mora y Leon said...

So are they all named Gonzalez?

Andres, you left out the important part! ;D

10:58 PM  
Anonymous Ybelice said...

CNE PARTE DEL FRAUDE.. ENTONCES QUIEN NOS REPRESENTA? QUIEN NOS DEFIENDE? QUIEN ESTA DE ESTE LADO?

Aqui esta la "prueba" (si se puede llamar de esa forma) de como está a mi parecer viciado el registro electoral, este fue el procedimiento que utilicé y que ustedes pueden repetir si lo desean:
1) Ustedes pueden abrir la pagina oficial del CNE http://www.cne.gov.ve y en la consulta del registro electoral introduzcan su numero de cedula y verifique sus datos, ahora ya saben que el registro electoral esta actualizado y funciona.
2) Ahora prueben colocando el numero de cedula de indentidad CI: N° 1 y como era de esperarse la persona no existe en el registro, nadie puede pensar que el primer Venezolano cedulado esta actualmente VIVO!!!!
3) Pero sigamos indagando, ahora coloque el numero CI: N° 10 y SORPRESA ese Venezolano si existe, "segun" debe estar "vivo" y depaso habilitado para votar!!!
4) Si no lo creen!!! (ustedes tienen el derecho a dudar) prueben con los numeros CI: 13, 14, 17, 37, 51 y SORPRENDENTEMENTE estos ciudadanos tambien estan inscritos, suponemos que deben estar "vivos" y de hecho, estan habilitados para votar!!!
5) En este punto ustedes deben estar en una situacion de incredulidad (segun su posicion politica) y dependiendo de esta ultima estarian experimentando un sentimiento de indignacion (si apoya la oposicion) o de incredulidad (si usted apoya al gobierno) lo cual es perfectamente valido.
6) Algunos me criticaran y diran que no tengo oficio por lo que hice a continuacion, pero con el fin de hacer una muestra un poco mas real de algo que no deberia estar pasando!!!! me tome la molestia de chequear en la misma pagina del CNE los inscritos en el registro electoral desde el N° 1 hasta el N° 500 y para SORPRESA de muchos (incluyendome), existen 81 personas inscritas y habilitadas para votar:
Estas 81 personas en un universo de 500 personas representan el 16.2% de electores que estan inscritos, habilitados para votar y que yo personalmente no creo que se encuentren vivos (usted que opina?)
Si lo quieren verificar por ustedes mismos aqui estan los numeros de Cedulas consultados: 10 13 14 17 37 51 55 56 59 62 66 67 71 76 77 80 84 87 88 95 96 97 99 100 103 104 111 116 117 118 119 122 123 126 129 132 134 142 155 159 160 163 165 167 172 176 184 185 193 196 199 200 212 214 217 222 231 234 237 241 252 255 283 286 310 334 341 348 365 371 386 403 405 408 412 422 440 443 467 476 488.
7) Luego de ver esto me tome un poco mas de tiempo y decidi hacer muestreos aleatorios de 100 numeros de cedulas concecutivos y encontre que en otros 500 numeros de cedulas consultados encontramos 67 personas inscritas que representan el 13.4% del total revisado.
Igualmente si todavia no me creen pueden verificarlo por ustedes mismos con los siguiente numeros de CI: 1002 1010 1018 1031 1032 1034 1038 1040 1043 1078 1079 1082 1085 1087 1088 1093 1503 1514 1515 1524 1525 1530 1535 1544 1545 1577 1586 2001 2013 2024 2031 2049 2080 2086 2087 2090 5002 5010 5021 5040 5041 5044 5045 5048 5061 5063 5076 5087 5089 5095 10000 10003 10004 10037 10045 10047 10049 10051 10053 10057 10064 10069 10070 10075 10076 10090 10092.
NOTA: A diferencia del muestreo realizado en los primeros 500 números los cuales fueron revisados consecutivamente (punto N°6) los siguiente 500 numeros revisados no estan de forma consecutiva, es decir, las series fueron de 100 numeros consecutivos distribuidos de la siguiente forma: Serie del 1000 al 1100, Serie del 1501 al 1600, Serie del 2000 al 2100, Serie del 5000 al 5100, Serie del 10000 al 10100.
8) En este punto viene su juicio a lo mostrado anteriormente para que tenga su conclusion le invito a responder las siguientes preguntas:
a) Puede estar vivo el Venezolano con la cedula numero 10? Cuantos años tendria?
b) Preguntele usted a sus familiares o amigos Venezolanos que sean de una avanzada edad su numero de cedula y en mi caso muy concreto el "Abuelo" con menor numero de Cedula es de seis (6) XXX.XXX cifras medias!! con 84 años, supongamos que todavia existan personas de cedula 100.000 que todavia esten vivas, cuantos años tendrian??? usted conoce alguna??? haga el muestreo con sus cercanos y se sorprendera!!!
c) Si hemos tenido no menos de 8 procesos electorales en los cuales se supone se debe depurar el registro antes de cada eleccion y en este caso no menos de 8 veces, como es que todavia existen numeros de cedulas tan bajos y que todavia no se ha depurado el registro??? como pueden existir inconsistencias tan evidentes???
d) En un universo de 1000 numeros de cedulas revisados (OJO NUMEROS BAJOS) encontramos 154 personas incritas y habilitadas para votar, a mi juicio no deben estar vivas por lo bajo de su numero de cedula la cual no sobrepasa el N° 10.092 entonces que significa esto se preguntaran ustedes??? las 154 personas representa el 15.4% de 1000, y si lo llevamos a millones quiere decir que "PUEDE" que existan inconsistencia en la base de datos del REP donde de cada millon (1.000.000) de inscritos (154.000) estan habilitados para votar pero en realidad no existen.
e) Esto quiere decir que de un universo de 15.000.000 de electores (no se si es exacta la cifra) el 15.4% osea 2.310.000 electores pueden no estar vivos y/o no deberian estar en la base de datos.
f) Por quien van a votar esos hipoteticos 2.310.000 electores???
g) Por que el CNE no ha podido depurar correctamente el REP???
h) A quien le creemos ahora???
i) Usted cree realmente que podemos ir a un proceso electoral con un REP tan inconsistente???
j) Por favor detengase a pensar , creen ustedes realmente que las personas con esos numeros de cedulas tan bajo esten vivas actualmente???
Para finalizar saquen por favor ustedes sus propias conclusiones, pero si le pido encarecidamente hagan ustedes mismos las pruebas con alguno de los numeros indicados anteriormente en la propia pagina del CNE y luego saquen ustedes sus propias conclusiones lo mas objetivamente posible.

SI LO DESEAN, PUEDEN ENVIARLE ESTE MENSAJE A SUS CONOCIDOS PARA QUE ELLOS TAMBIEN TENGAN LA OPORTUNIDAD DE HACER LA PRUEBA.
SI NO LO ENVIA NADA MALO LE PASARA, ESTO NO ES UNA CADENA Y NO EMPEZO EN LA INDIA, NI NADIE MORIRA, NI SIQUIERA CREO LE DARA LA VUELTA EL MUNDO.


DELE LA OPORTUNIDAD A UN
CERCANO DE COMPROBAR POR EL MISMO Y QUE SEA
EL QUIEN SAQUE SUS PROPIAS CONCLUSIONES.


USTEDES DEBEN HACER SUS PROPIAS PRUEBAS

http://www.cne.gov.ve

3:37 PM  
Blogger leftside said...

It's telling that as a real epic battle over electoral fraud and vote counting goes on in our most important regional neighbor (Mexico), this blog has not mentioned the allegations. Instead we are drawn to these electoral roll administrative mistakes that end up being nothing, in a country where the months-away election will not even be close.

Readers would be better advised to check out what the NYTimes and LATimes are reporting out of places like Guanajuato, where despite massive irregularities and eleciton officials openly pro-PAN very few, if any, ballot boxes were recounted. Where they were allowed to be re-opened, AMLO receieved on average more than 4 votes per precinct.

In one Guadalajara District, the 8 ballot boxes that were opened, all showed massive 'mistakes' that gave AMLO thousands of votes.... AMLO needs just 2 votes per precinct to be the victor.

9:46 PM  
Anonymous Mousqueton said...

I am back guys and I must say I missed the delightful intellectual skirmishes that take place in this blog.

By the way, it has been a while since I had the chance to read an article on Latin America that advocates the need for a new foreign policy in the region. It has certainly been extremely long since I have read an article that offers fresh and viable alternatives to the outdated and strategically moronic Cuban centric policy we have today.

The time has come though and I am delighted to encourage you to follow the link ahead and read this most insightful article; “ The Good Neighbor Strategy ” by Moises Naim published in the July 17, 2006 issue of Time Magazine.

Mr. Moises Naim is Editor in Chief of Foreign Policy Magazine which I find to be a most interesting publication and therefore I am including a link to the magazine in this comment as well.

I hope Andres will not mind me taking the liberty of including the above links in the comments of his blog.

11:38 PM  
Anonymous Mousqueton said...

Sorry; I made a mistake in the link to the article. Here it is again: ; “ The Good Neighbor Strategy

11:51 PM  
Blogger A.M. Mora y Leon said...

Leftside: The claims made in the LA Times were baloney and not just baloney, but unprofessional. Publishing threats by obvious political operatives was pretty bad journaistic ethics, according to seasoned correspondents, an obvious effort to manipulate events and give a favored side a platform for churning trouble.

One correspondent sent me this email today:

That LA times story is crap. Then (the writer) ends it with the testimony of people gathered by the PRD! At least he was honest in mentioning that, but that’s where the honesty ended.

Knowing how things work in Mexico, you can be pretty sure the angry witch who made the comments at the tail end of the story may have rejected the PAN’s roofing materials (truth of this is doubtful), but she probably accepted something else from the PRD in the good ‘ole PRI (where the PRD came from) style. It was pretty unprofessional and especially irresponsible for the Los Angeles Times to include the comments of a highly ignorant person controlled by a political party as threatening war. In my LA reporting days, we were forbidden to name street gangs by name when we put them on the air, and airing threats was unthinkable. Similar rule applied in other countries.


The LA Times has very low news standards in this, and they're counting on you as one of the gullible.

12:53 AM  
Blogger leftside said...

I really can't believe that (linked article) sort of middling soft thinking has reached the top ranks of our foreign policy establishment.

Maybe that's a bit harsh, but Naim says the biggest barrier to a free trade agreement with Brazil (magic bullet # 2 to defeating 'Chavezism') is US business interests, and not the strong role of the Lula Government in fighting the US approach. His "friendly neighbor" policy means kissing up to Brazil, who is currently welcoming Venezuela into their own chosen trade block - Mercosur. Kissing Lula's ass will gain the US nothing. Sure, the whole world wants the US to buy more of its basic goods, but many would argue it is Brazil that has led the 3rd world in rebellion since Doha...

From the start of his piece I thought he was going to outline how the US can compete with Chavez and Castro in reducing "poverty, inequality, exclusion, corruption and widespread frustration." But when he blames the "predatory élites" in Latin capitals, to let the Washington concensus and mal-used US power off the hook, I knew not to prepare for much.

In supporting his 1st magic bullet, to end the Cuban embargo, he implies it's just a mere irritant to Cuba but that its existence represents a (gasp) "blatant double-standard." He is right about one thing though, that lifting the embargo would provoke howls fromt the 'exiles.'

Maybe doing these 2 things would be productive steps for the US in some small way. But what no one in the establishment seems to understand is that the Washington model have already lost. People are searching for alternatives, but they are not choosing ours... unless you count 36% of Mexicans (Garcia in Peru is not exactly a Chicago school disciple).

4:10 AM  
Anonymous Mousqueton said...

I do not think that anyone in his right mind would say that there were no irregularities in the last Mexican election. As a matter of fact, I do not think anyone in his right mind would make such a statement about any electoral process including, or maybe I should say specially, the ones held in the United States.

Of course, when an election is very tight and a small number of votes can make the difference there is always doubt about the fairness of the ballot counting process.

In every election there are a number questionable ballots and irregularities that are open to interpretation. Further, in a very tight election it is reasonable to argue that the electoral officials may not be able to avoid being somewhat biased to the candidate of their preference and/or interests when deciding for or against tally complaints filed by the candidates.

We should know since the recounting of ballots in the 2000 Presidential election gave birth to a whole new legal volume on the interpretation of valid and voided ballots and raised serious doubts about the impartiality of electoral and government officials as well as supreme court justices. Further, the claims of fraud in the Ohio vote tally of the 2004 Presidential election are not only still fresh but in fact have been supported to a certain degree by the findings of the GAO report of September 2005.

We should not be surprised therefore that there are complaints about the results of the Mexican Presidential election. When the vote margin between two candidates is so small it doesn’t matter how many times you count the votes you will get a different final count every time; this, because the outcome of the election will eventually be decided by a subjective interpretation of which questionable votes are indeed valid and which are not. In this kind of situation the incumbent political force has the upper hand to win the election.

This might not be completely fair but the fact is that no electoral system is perfect and a tight election means that the country is evenly divided and therefore can not choose a clear winner. It also means that the electoral system needs to be improved to avoid similar situations in the future. At the end of the day, it all boils down to the fact that the country needs to elect a President and given the vote tally anyone of the two candidates would do.

What is coming out of Venezuela though, if proven true, is a completely different and certainly most disturbing story. We are not talking here of a reasonable electoral debate about the vote tally in a very tight election but indeed about a total disregard for Democracy and the rights of the Venezuelan people.

A proof that there is a crude and certainly moronic State sponsored scheme (I do not know of any other word that could better describe posting a fraudulent electoral roll on the internet) to deprive the people of Venezuela of their Democratic right to choose their leaders.

It would also give credibility to the claims by many Venezuelans of widespread electoral fraud in past elections and the government’s reluctance and red tape when it comes to making an audit of the electoral roll.

It could also mean that if the fraudulent roll has been used in past elections Chavez might not be a “Caudillo” after all, which was bad enough, but indeed a Dictator.

Let’s wait and see though. Until now we are talking about allegations.

6:09 AM  
Blogger leftside said...

Yes, we are talking about allegations in Venezuela. Accuasations if proven true, I admit, would be more serious than the apparent individualized cases of fraud and tally errors we're seeing in Mexico.

BUT, one has to think pretty lowly of the Venezuelan Government to beleieve they thought having 1.7 million people living at the same address on the rolls was the way to cheat the election. One would have to think they were insane to risk a sure victory with such a hair-brained idea... not to mention making the list publically available at the same time. That is why I (again) feel these allegations of stolen elections in Venezuela are hogwash. I mean independent polls haven't shown Chavez below 50% in ages.

But my point is that establishment opinion-makers like Oppenheimer don't really care much for getting the votes right (democracy), they care about the results. If the concern was really democracy and not the prevention of leftiss, then we would be reading more about the thousands of instances of actual fraud and mishaps in Mexico. Sure there are always mistakes, but when they have all turned up to have benefitted Calderon thus far, one can not blame PDRistas for wanting a recount. An administation and set of policy elites that puts democracy promotion at the front of every sentance should back this simple call.

2:58 PM  
Anonymous Mousqueton said...

I agree with leftside, believe it or not, that the electoral roll mistake in Venezuela is so far out there that it is indeed unbelievable.
Sometimes though the simplest explanation is the correct one; they just do not care.
I have the feeling we will soon find out.

As for the Mexican election, as long as candidates execise their rights under the law I think that is fair.

Leftside will have to concede though that we are not talking about widespread fraud in the Mexican election. It would also be moronic to rig an election so as to win for just a couple hundred votes.
That is not to say that given the tight tally there may very well be last minute officials trying to pull votes out their sleeves.

5:25 PM  
Blogger paco said...

Mexican elections were excellent. AMLO has lost all his credibility over the past days. If you still believe in AMLO after what he`d said, you gotta be crazy (you gotta read what he said this week). The process was graded by EVERYONE with an A (except AMLO, of course).
AMLO lost it(his mind), completely.

The only mistake that IFE made was a communication mistake of not informing the details about the PREP. Nevertheless PRD behaved incorrectly when accusing IFE about this because they already knew about it (political parties agreed about this long time before).

In summary, the elections were excelent. Dont try to see what didnt happen.

11:53 PM  
Blogger leftside said...

I think Mexico has a great election system in many ways but in implementation it was, at best, too ambitous. There simply should be a mechanism for a recount, especially in a country with a history such as Mexico. If nothing turns up it would prove the legitimacy of the IFE for years to come.

As evidence of irregularities have come rolling out Mexicans are making up their own mind about who broke rules, and where. Ads declared illegal aired for weeks, the Government told the TV networks what to (not) report on election night, powerful companies sent media messages, investors panicked, irregular tallies have overwhelmingly turned up to favor AMLO...

Is that a pattern of fraud or not, I don't know. But what should wake people up is that Calderon seems scared now. He is doing what he condemned AMLO of a few days ago. He is asking for the annulment of (pro-Obrador) votes in hundreds of areas... many because PAN election workers did not show up! Still Calderon's complaints cite just 500 districts with problems, versus AMLO's 50,000 (of 130,000).

The situation requires delicacy, something neither AMLO or Calderon are showing. Calderon is acting as if he's the President-elect before he's been declared anything. AMLO seems too confident for the evidence I've seen laid out as well. A recount would take a day and end it.

4:32 AM  
Blogger paco said...

AMLO and Calderon acted irresponsably. Calderon in first place should had waited for the oficial desision. AMLO is more irresponsable because his evidence of fraud is not convincing even PRD simpatizants. The videos, the disqualification of AMLO to HIS OWN representants, the offering of dealing with PAN outside the law to open the ballots... I mean, too many mistakes and lies from AMLO and PRD. They say they found irregularities, of course, citizens counted the votes and some of them had mistakes when reporting the votes, but that is different from what AMLO is accusing, he is accusing of a big fraud, when NOBODY sees evidence of a flagrant fraud. We agree that the people made some mistakes. Thats why theres a court to arraign what has to be arraigned.

As evidence, in one module that was videotaped and then showed by amlo had a PRD representant and there was no irregularity. PRD representant affirmed that everything was made correctly. PRD didnt even arraigned that box in court. Its just more manipulation from AMLO.

The objective of AMLO is to cancel the election. The evidence: He says in the media and to his people that he wants a recount. Reality shows other thing. In the allegations presented to the court in charge (he has the right to allege whatever) his main petition is the annulment of the election. Media is not making this up. AMLO presented this document.

To defend AMLO right now is to defend something indefensible. Thats what facts are telling us.

2:55 PM  
Blogger Boli-Nica said...


Maybe that's a bit harsh, but Naim says the biggest barrier to a free trade agreement with Brazil (magic bullet # 2 to defeating 'Chavezism') is US business interests, and not the strong role of the Lula Government in fighting the US approach. His "friendly neighbor" policy means kissing up to Brazil, who is currently welcoming Venezuela into their own chosen trade block - Mercosur. Kissing Lula's ass will gain the US nothing. Sure, the whole world wants the US to buy more of its basic goods, but many would argue it is Brazil that has led the 3rd world in rebellion since Doha...



Lula's approach is based on achieving some sort of numbers and consensus to succesfully challenge EU and US agricultural restrictions.
That and modification of the intellectual property regimen. It is hardly a radical position

5:27 PM  
Blogger leftside said...

On the supposed electoral fraud in Venezuela (from the Miami Herald):

The (Venezuelan Election) Council says it has already removed 400,000 voters from the rolls because of inconsistencies in the registry, and the registry is now in the midst of its second official audit in a year. The first, by the Costa Rica-based watchdog group CAPEL, affiliated to the Interamerican Institute of Human Rights, found only limited ''inconsistencies.'' The second is being performed by professors from government-run universities.

An unofficial survey by professors from private universities who refused to take part in the second audit also turned up flaws in the registry but nothing, they said, that would taint the overall results of an election.

12:07 PM  
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