Wednesday, July 05, 2006
I just interviewed Miguel Angel Solis, o top official of Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) and two well-known pollsters (Cesar Ortega of Ipsos-Bimsa and Francisco Abundis, of Parametria) to find out what’s likely to happen with Mexico’s electoral tie. In a nutshell, there are about 3 million votes with “inconsistencies” that – under a previous agreement of all parties – were never supposed to be included in the preliminary vote estimate released by the IFE on Monday. But the IFE apparently screwed up in saying its PREP results giving Felipe Calderon a lead of more than 1 percent lead over Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador were based on 98 percent of the voting tallies (in fact, it was based on 86 percent of the tallies, since the ones with “inconsistencies” or “irregularities” were not supposed to be counted,) which gave leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador a chance to cry foul play. I'll expand in the comments section.