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Monday, July 03, 2006

MY BET ON MEXICO’S ELECTION – AS OF MONDAY, 10:30 AM

MEXICO CITY – With the latest preliminary tally from the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) showing government-backed candidate Felipe Calderon ahead by 1 percent of the vote with 96.6 % of the voting tables counted as of 10;30 am Monday, most pollsters say Calderon is the most likely winner of Sunday’s vote. Left-of-center candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador would have to win the entire remaining 3.4 percent of the voting tables – something very unlikely, given that many of the still-to-be-counted voting places are in pro-Calderon states such as Jalisco. It now looks like the IFE will declare Calderon the winner later this week, Lopez Obrador will demand a recount and contest several polling sites results, and the issue will go to the electoral tribunal. This could take several days, or several weeks, to be resolved. I will update this later in the comments section.

7 Comments:

Blogger paco said...

I heard you this morning with Pedro Ferriz de Con. You thought we were overeacting in our worries about AMLO. You said we shouldnt worry about AMLO`s autoproclamation (except for the word irrversible), you say that this situation has happened before in several places in the world, for example Kerry in the States. My question is, Dont you think that there is enough evidence that tell us that AMLO is more dangerous than any of the candidates that once autopraclaimed themselves wrongly the winners? Dont you think that this scenario is dangerous specially because AMLO has a lot of convocatory power among, as he calls them, the "oppressed ones"? People that follow AMLO are guided solely by their emotions, as evidence, yesterday the Zocalo was packed and in the middle of the speech people started screaming: "Duro!!!, Duro!!!". C`mon, its not a fight, there is not need to scream "duro, duro". It sounded like the "Lucha Libre".

1:31 PM  
Blogger leftside said...

Give us a break Paco. Essentially calling the Mexican (poor) PRD supporters dumb and guided "solely by their emotions" may be ok in PAN circles, but not here for all to read.

I didn't hear this kind of talk when it was the right in the Ukraine or Georgia proclaiming their victories, based on exit polls that showed them the winners (like censored polls did here... yes the Intelligence units called newscasters to tell them not to report polls that had ALMO on top).

What you can't understand is that this election IS a fight for many of the poor. Not because they are stupid, but because they are smart. The poor are tired of PAN and PRI's paternalism and want real action for their benefit. They don't want to wait 100 years for some crumbs of capitalism to tivkle down. They need housing, they need pensions, they need their rural communities protected from unfair competition.

And maybe suspicious woudn't be so high if ALMO and PRD hadn't had elections stolen from them before.

Recount figures released an hour ago show ALMO with the lead.... this is not over, depsite what the US press want to report.

3:36 PM  
Blogger paco said...

lol, I can say that you dont know AMLO. The dude is crazy! His speech is full of contradictions.

Mexican economy cant give pensions and money to the poors, economically is imposible. What you say about giving pensions and housing, is pure paternalism. Mexico doesnt need an interventionist state (paternalism), it needs a good market economy.

If I say that PRD people is guided by their emotions is because they are being manipulated by AMLO. AMLO acuses with no proofs, mentions polls that only he has, speaks with no logic arguments, insults with no provocation, lies and evades. PRD is the reencarnation of the old PRI.

Look, Im nor rightofcenter or leftist. I just want someone that understands the importance of being a good global economic player.

I have the impression that people like you look just one side of the story.
I have to tell you that in some way Im happy that the left in Mexico appeared strongly. That competitions is going to keep Calderon working well.

take care

10:16 PM  
Blogger paco said...

ps leftist

I never said or mentioned that there was a polarization of classes between calderon and amlo. I never mentioned that amlo followers are poor.

12:10 PM  
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