Monday, July 03, 2006
MEXICO CITY – With the latest preliminary tally from the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) showing government-backed candidate Felipe Calderon ahead by 1 percent of the vote with 96.6 % of the voting tables counted as of 10;30 am Monday, most pollsters say Calderon is the most likely winner of Sunday’s vote. Left-of-center candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador would have to win the entire remaining 3.4 percent of the voting tables – something very unlikely, given that many of the still-to-be-counted voting places are in pro-Calderon states such as Jalisco. It now looks like the IFE will declare Calderon the winner later this week, Lopez Obrador will demand a recount and contest several polling sites results, and the issue will go to the electoral tribunal. This could take several days, or several weeks, to be resolved. I will update this later in the comments section.