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Thursday, February 08, 2007

GLOBAL WARMING WILL HIT AMERICAS -- EL CALENTAMIENTO DE LAS AMERICAS

If you listen to some of the experts who issued a much-awaited United Nations report on global warming in Paris last week, it sounds like rising oceans will soon make their way to your bedroom and force you to hop out of bed in the middle of the night. Read the full column here to find out what the experts told me, and what I think about it. And let us know what YOU think.

13 Comments:

Blogger Cogito Argentum said...

Actually, the report will be issued in three months.

2:47 PM  
Anonymous longtimemeteorologist said...

I met Canziani. All WMO (World Met Organization), or rather, many of the WMO experts (as they're called) are nothing but bureaucrats more interested in developing reports, adding a word here, and taking a sentence there (so the report fits well in Spanish, English, French) than in the actual science of global warming, if there is such a thing. I met Canziani long ago, in Argentina, when I was with the airlines. I've talked to real experts in oceanography/meteorology, experts in air-sea interaction, and the warming may or may not have much to do with automobile emissions. I don't care how many reports those scientists (who normally want money for research so they can tell their universities that they're bringing the money in) write, or how many bureaucrats and translators they use, this thing, this report, is all politics and much less science. The Kyoto Treaty was a farce that penalized the USA, and failed to do so to China, India, and Brazil, just as much polluters as the USA might be. This is all in vogue now: attack the USA from all angles as the cause of all evils in the world. The truth is the Earth warms up and cools off on its own, for many reasons, one of which is how the Gulf Stream is behaving on the North Atlantic engine that warms up Europe and doesn't let it go into another ice age. If the poles melt, there will be all that fresh water added to the North Atlantic, and the density of it will decrease. This may interrupt the entire cycle of water from tropical latitudes to northern Europe, and then back down to the Equator. If that happens, Europe will become an iceberg, an ice cream cone, instead of the other way around. Also, the temperature measurements on which this whole thing are based are doubtful at best. Bush is half-giving in to a bunch of voodoo quackery.

7:31 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

from: Paul Thørsen
PThørsen240@aol.com

Oh come on, åndêrs, cut out the nonsense of blaming the USA for burning fossil fuels. The USA is leading the world in going green and in developing renewable energy.
It's China and Russia who are polluting the world.
Anyways, it's the Maldives Island chain in the Indian Ocean that I worry about being inundated. Each island maxes out at maybe 1 meter.

10:35 PM  
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4:30 AM  
Anonymous rioteodoro said...

Sr. Oppenheimer...

Como lector frecuente me llamo la atencion el haber escogido el tema del momento para su columna.

Digo que me llama la atencion no como critica, sino porque es un tema muy, pero muy poco entendido, y demasiado manipulado por personalidades o instituciones que no saben mucho sobre el mismo - o saben lo suficiente como para hacer enlaces que a primera vista son simples y razonables, pero en realidad muy complejos de comprobar. Por tal razon, es un tema que se presta mucho a las primeras planas alarmistas y el poder hacer sentido del bombardeo publico que se recibe a diario, lo hace un tema dificil de tratar en una columna. Por lo cual le felicito ya que su presentacion la he encontrado equilibrada, y enfocada en lo que realmente es importante en el debate - o sea, lo que signifique para nosotros en ALC.

Pero bien - profesionalmente he tenido bastante experiencia operativa en el tema, pero enfocada en el tema de negocios. Que significa para nuestros proyectos energeticos, de combustibles alternativos, de transporte sostenible, eficiencia energetica en industria, manejo de residuos agricolas, industriales, etc. Me parece tenemos muchas oportunidades para mejorar nuestros procesos productivos, y es ahi donde yo veo el valor principal de las iniciativas surgidas de esta preocupacion mundial.

Anteriormente estuve con un programa de carbono y energias renovables de un banco de desarrollo y ahora estoy con el sector privado dirigiendo actividades en LAC relacionadas a inversiones en eficiencia energetica, energia renovable, etc., asi que he visto el impacto de estas oleadas publicitarias, y poco entendimiento, asi como las oportunidades comerciales que existen hoy dia.

Lo que si sabemos a ciencia cierta es lo siguiente:

1. la ciencia del clima es extremadamente compleja y poco entendida aun...

2. el clima ha cambiado y seguira cambiando durante toda la historia del planeta - este cambio es una realidad

3. existe evidencia hoy dia que las temperaturas estan subiendo en algunas partes del mundo - no en todas y existe evidencia que las capas polares y glaciales se estan derritiendo - pero la evidencia no es consistente - en otras partes del planeta estan incrementandose

4. existe evidencia que los patrones climatologicos del mundo estan variando

5. no es el primer panico publico ambiental que vemos - como creo que ud. menciona en el articulo - yo tambien recuerdo el enfriamiento en los 70's, las hambrunas vaticinadas tambien durante la misma decada, el efecto nocivo y devastante pronosticado de la superpoblacion, el agujero en la capa de ozono, etc.

6. Se cree que la actividad productiva del hombre esta incidiendo en este cambio - algo que es muy dificil de comprobar a ciencia cierta, pero que suena algo razonable para la mayoria

7. El reporte completo no ha salido a la luz, solamente un resumen ejecutivo

8. Aparentemente hay cambios importantes en algunas de las proyecciones - ya no son tan fin del mundistas todas las proyecciones - aunque notara que no es eso lo que se ha resaltado en la prensa internacional

9. existe un compromiso publico que ha resultado en un marco regulatorio que ha creado unas oportunidades reales en el ambito de los mercados ambientales


Con estas (entre muchas otras realidades), concuerdo con su conclusion que me recuerda a la apuesta de Blaise Pascal con relacion a la existencia de Dios - o sea, hay que hacer algo y sacarle provecho - si es cierto que este fenomeno es tan grave como algunos predican, estamos contribuyendo a mejorar una de las causas, si no, aun asi estamos mejorando la intensidad energetica de nuesteros procesos productivos de todas maneras.

Pero me preocupa que se desvie demasiada atencion y recursos a otros problemas ambientales severos, actuales, conocidos y comprobados (como la desnutricion, las enfermedades infectocontagiosas que se pueden controlar controlando la calidad del agua, el control de las plagas como mosquitos, etc.), y pienso que es importante mantener una perspectiva razonable y racional, sin entrar en ningun panico, ya que el cielo aun no se esta cayendo.

Aclaro que no soy un esceptico ideologico ni nada por el estilo - simplemente soy pragmatico, busco oportunidades para mejorar nuestros procesos productivos en LAC, y francamente me cuesta tomar lo que proviene de la ONU en serio.

6:10 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr. Oppenheimer: At the end of your article you make a comment to the effect that "The Venezuela Information Office is funded by the Venezuelan government".

I have no doubt that the Venezuelan Information Office is funded by that country's government but in all fairness to your readers I think you should have pointed out that the newspaper company that you yourself write for was found last year (2006) to be employing reporters who were on the payroll of the US government.

I trust that you yourself Mr. Oppenheimer have never been funded by the US Government to express Anti Cuban/Venezuelan views but I firmly believe that you have a responsibility to all your readers to fully disclose that certain reporters (total of 37 individuals incl. freelancers) working for your newspaper company were found last year to be on the payroll of the US government.

=========
"News broke in September (2006) that eight of El Nuevo Herald's reporters and 29 of its freelancers were paid to work for the U.S. government's Radio and TV Marti networks. The government beams programming into Cuba aimed at undermining the communist Castro government. "

"The Miami Herald and El Nuevo Herald are separate newspapers, but they share an office and are both published by The Miami Herald Media Co. El Nuevo Herald is one of the nation's largest Spanish-language newspapers."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,,-6238177,00.html

6:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Re anonymous' claim that some El Nuevo Herald reproters "were funded" by the U.S. government, anonymous fails to point out that these reporters were just free-lancing for Radio Marti; and that The Miami Herald reported was first to report it; and that the reporters were suspended or fired, and that they were later re-admitted on the condition that they stop free-lancing for Radio Marti. So there is a difference: The Venezuelan Information Office is stil funded by Chavez, whereas the El Nuevo Herald staffers have stopped freelancing for Radio Marti, or have left that newspaper.

12:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Andres
In your last article, you have forgetten the Kyoto Protocol.

Could you tell us why Mr. Bush has rejected to sign the Kyoto agreement?

As the most important carbon emisor US must sign that agreement. But, unfortunately we know the kind of leadership Mr Bush administration has.


GREEnTINGS,

Ruben P.
Rosario - Argentina
rubpen@gmail.com

12:24 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr. Oppenheimer, is usually on the money, insightful and incisive. I love reading what he writes, right or wrong Yet, he falls short in his last column on climate change: mitigating it will have costs and benefits. This is what Martin Wolf (FT) raises in his Feb 5 column commenting on the Climate Change panel's report. A more complete discussion has to refer to the debate that has sprouted from Sir Nicholas Stern's review on the Economics of Climate Change.

Both Stern and his main critic, Sir Partha Dasgupta (at Cambridge)believe that, paraphrasing someone I don't remember "....the envirnoment is way too important to leave only to the environmentalists."

12:15 PM  
Anonymous brickbradford said...

Let's pay attention to the shifting magnetic poles, or the possible loss of the earth's magnetic field. The latter goes, and we become a bigger version of Mars.

Global Warming is 75% a fabrication by Al Gore (Did he invent the internet?), but the earth's climate changing is real, though not necessarily due to carbon dioxide emissions by humans.

The Miami Herald has indeed employed a couple of people of dubious reputation who might have worked for the Cuban government at some point in their careers.

All of these need to be addressed. The Radio Marti reporters were just free lancing, and that is customary in many journalistic circles.

4:01 PM  
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