FROM A BREAKFAST WITH MEXICO'S TOP ELECTION OFFICIAL
MEXICO CITY - Judging from what I heard over breakfast with Luis Carlos Ugalde, the head of the Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE,) the vote of the young will decide this Sunday's presidential elections. There will be 13 million new registered voters in this election, of which 12 million will be aged between 18 and 23, he said. People aged 18-34 will make up 45 percent of the 71.3 million registered voters. Ugalde said that, traditionally, only 30 percent of young voters go to the polls. Who will benefit from the young vote? Some answers in the comments section.
posted by Andres Oppenheimer at 7:19 PM
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Ugalde would not get into the question of who will benefit from the young vote. But other well-placed political observers tell me that government-backed candidate Felipe Calderon has a slight edge among young voters. They see him as the younger, more modern candidate. If this is true, and young voters turn out to vote massively, Calderon has a chance.
It seems logical to me that the Internet-savvy, high-expectations young people would go for a guy like Calderon.
Yet, when I was in Venezuela, a nation loaded with young people, there seemed to be a consensus going around that because the young people had no experience or memory of communism, they found it easy to believe the pie in the sky promises of socialism with great gullibility.
I can't say what the case is with Mexico. It seems the young are easily gulled on the promises of socialism before they have any experience in life (I was practically a commie when I was young, too.) But every single democratic revolution against communism and socialism in our age has been led by the vibrant young, too. (Except the French, who don't understand that it's socialism that's killing them, not free markets.) And in addition, at Reagan's funeral, thousands and thousands of young people, with absolutely no memory of Reagan, turned out to pay their last respects. To be anti-socialist is a young person's thing, on the whole. But only if certain factors are also present, I am not absolutely sure what.
Maybe it's also significant that AMLO promises free money to the old. Would the young view that as liberation from having to support old abuelita? Or as higher taxes ripped off out of his paycheck? I don't know.
But I don't discount that Calderon will win. I've been wrong before, on Morales, but it just seems that AMLO does not add up at times.
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