The Oppenheimer Report on Latin America

FINALLY, RECKLESS CABLE TV'S ANTI-IMMIGRATION ANCHORS ON THE SPOT

2008-05-29T07:23:00.000-04:00

My May 29 column says "Bravo!" to a study by Media Matters Action Network, which blasts cable television anchors Lou Dobbs and Glenn Beck, of CNN, and Bill O'Reilly, of Fox News, for practicing reckless journalism. Here is the link to the sstudy: http://mediamattersaction.org/reports/fearandloathing/online_version.
What do you think of the study? And of Barack Obama's comment about it in the column?

DEBERIA EL SECRETARIO GENERAL DE LA OEA, J.M. INSULZA, ORDENAR UNA INVESTIGACION SOBRE LAS COMPUTADORAS DE LAS FARC?

2008-05-22T19:29:00.000-04:00

El senador estadounidense Richard Lugar, del Comite de Relaciones Exteriores, envio una energica carta al Secretario General de la OEA, Jose Miguel Insulza, pidiendole que ordene una investigacion sobre las computadoras de la guerrilla colombiana de las FARC. Insulza dice que no lo hara hasta que Colombia se lo pida (ver mi columna del 22 de mayo). Aqui esta la carta de Lugar: http://lugar.senate.gov/sfrc/pdf/FARC.pdf. Que creen ustedes deberia hacerse?

SHOULD OAS SECRETARY GENERAL INSULZA CALL FOR HEARINGS ON FARC FILES?

2008-05-22T09:11:00.000-04:00

Sen. Richard Lugar of the Foreign Relations Committee is calling for OAS Secretary Jose Miguel Insulza to call hearings on the Colombian FARC guerrillas' computer files, which refer to Venezuela and Ecuador's active support for the colombian rebels. Here is a copy of Lugar's letter to Insulza: http://lugar.senate.gov/sfrc/pdf/FARC.pdf. What do you think? What should be done?

MI ENTREVISTA CON EL PRESIDENTE ALVARO URIBE -- TRATARA DE RE-ELEGIRSE?

2008-04-28T11:59:00.000-04:00

En una entrevista con el presidente colombiano Alvaro Uribe, le pregunte cinco veces si tratara de reformar la constitucion para candidatearse a un tercer mandato. Las cinco veces, se fue por la tangente.
En mi columna del domingo, escribi que Uribe cometeria un grave error si trata de re-elegirse. Ahora, pueden ver la transcripcion de la entrevista completa aqui. Estan de acuerdo conmigo, o creen que Uribe deberia re-elegirse para un tercer mandato?

MY INTERVIEW WITH COLOMBIAN PRESIDENT URIBE - SHOULD HE RUN AGAIN OR NOT?

2008-04-28T11:51:00.000-04:00

In my interview with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, I asked him five times whether he will run for a third term in office. Five times, he didn't answer.
In my Sunday, April 27 column, I cited the reasons why I think Uribe would make a big mistake by trying to reform the constitution and run for a third term (you can read the column here.) Now, you can read the full transcript of the interview here. What do you think? Do you agree with me, or not?

RUNNING FOR SECRETARY OF STATE? WHAT DO YOU THINK?

2008-04-11T18:37:00.000-04:00

DODD CALLS FOR NEW STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP IN THE AMERICAS

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Chairman of its Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, Peace Corps, and Narcotics Affairs, is scheduled to deliver the keynote address at the United States Naval Academy’s Foreign Affairs Conference. In his address, Dodd will lay out a blueprint charting a new course for U.S.—Latin America relations in the 21st Century. Senator Dodd is widely respected as one of the Senate’s foremost experts on Latin America.

Remarks of Senator Christopher J. Dodd
Toward a Strategic Partnership In the Americas
Naval Academy Foreign Affairs Conference:
Beyond Borders: Latin America and the Caribbean in the 21st Century
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
7:30 PM

As Prepared For Delivery

For more than four-and-a-half decades, your conferences have provided a topical forum for American and foreign students of international affairs.

I am therefore honored to be your keynote speaker at this forum on Latin America.

Before addressing the subject at hand, allow me to say what an honor it is to be here at the Naval Academy.

For thirty-four years, I have represented our nation’s premier undersea warfare facilities-- Naval Submarine Base New London, the Electric Boat Division of General Dynamics, and the Naval Undersea Warfare Center.
As a young boy, I joined my parents at the launching of the nuclear Navy with the commissioning of the U.S.S. Nautilus, and I witnessed my mother christening the U.S.S. Stimson.

My first cousin, Bill McAree, a graduate of the Naval Academy, was one of the chosen few to serve in the nuclear submarine force under Admiral Rickover.

Thus, it is with immense appreciation that I may talk with you, our Navy’s future officer corps and leaders, about another area in which I am particularly connected—Latin America. I urge each of you to explore ways to get more involved in this exciting and promising part of the world.

I speak not simply as an active member of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere for the last 26 years.

But also as someone who played a part in the region’s social and economic development— starting as a former Peace Corps volunteer in the Dominican Republic more than 40 years ago.

Today, I am urging all of you to heed a similar call. To pay particular attention to foreign language classes and to learn about foreign cultures and histories.

Many of you I expect will choose a career in the Navy extending well into the 21st century. You will have an opportunity to play key roles in helping shape our relations abroad, not only on standard deployments overseas,
-- but possibly as an attaché in a U.S. embassy,
-- or as a representative at a mission to a multilateral organization,
-- maybe as a military commander in joint allied operations,
-- or as an intelligence officer working in concert with key allies.

Without any doubt there are those of you at this gathering this evening who will help shape the role of the United States globally in this new century.

As Latin America and the United States enter this pivotal transition, I hope that you will begin to take notice of important choices we can make as a nation and as a Navy to influence how this transition will take shape.

For plebs [PLEEBS] and midshipmen alike, I believe that there is no more exciting time than now, to be primed as leaders of our Navy.

We all know that national security is inexorably dependent on American seapower.

As you have no doubt been instructed, a key function of seapower is to project force across the globe. In the Pacific Command’s Area of Responsibility (AOR), for example, such use of seapower has proven particularly important.

Now, as a Senator from the submarine-building state, I could regale you with reasons why submarines must play a critical role in countering China’s growing naval fleet.

But tempting as that is, it would get us off-track from the theme of this year’s foreign policy conference.

There is another critically important role for seapower, aside from force projection– and that is constructive engagement.

It is this role of constructive engagement in the Americas that I wish to address this evening.

As former Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Arleigh Burke said in 1961 on this very campus:

"For in this modern world, the instruments of warfare are not solely for waging war. Far more importantly, they are the means for controlling peace. Naval officers must therefore understand not only how to fight a war, but how to use the tremendous power which they operate to sustain a world of liberty and justice, without unleashing the powerful instruments of destruction and chaos that they have at their command."

Admiral Burke’s declaration is no less true for you today.

When we talk of instruments of power, we must necessarily include diplomacy, especially when conducting joint allied-operations, intelligence sharing, skills training, and, most importantly, the exchange of principled ideals--

Ideals that Admiral Burke called liberty and justice, but that I would expand to include respect for human rights, civilian control of the military, and serving the needs of civil society.

In fact, at this very moment you are taking part in such engagement. Today, 48 foreign students are enrolled at the Naval Academy, from 24 different countries.

Many of these students will be commissioned as officers in their own nations’ militaries. In the same vein, this past academic year, 25 midshipmen enrolled in classes overseas in 11 different countries.

We must expand these initiatives to exchange cultural ideas, and build mutual trust as a foundation for long-standing ties among our future military leaders.

My hope is that Latin America becomes an integral part of these programs.

When it comes to the military, there is no region of the world where our Armed Forces are better equipped to take on missions of political engagement than in Latin America.

Of all the combatant commands, Southern Command has a proven track record of working with other U.S. agencies in diplomatic and law enforcement missions, operating closely with the Departments of State and Treasury, as well as the Drug Enforcement Agency.

But we have not always employed the appropriate mix of force projection and constructive engagement.

In fact, for 185 years, the United States has cited the Monroe Doctrine as the basis for repelling foreign intervention, and singularly dominating the affairs of Latin America.

We didn’t dominate hemispheric affairs out of vanity—we did so because we concluded that domination was the best way to pursue and secure our interests.

With the rise of “Battleship Diplomacy” in the early 20th century, we often advanced our strategic and commercial objectives for the region through the 12-inch barrels of our battleship cannons.

Sometimes at the request of Latin American nations themselves, our Navy and Marine Corps warded off the influence of foreign powers in the hemisphere.

In 1898, the United States launched the Spanish-American war— America’s first time fighting a war against a major power entirely outside of our territory.

It was also the first American war conducted under a naval-based plan rather than an army plan.

In the end, this 113-day war marked an important milestone for both U.S. fleet tactics and the hemisphere:

By resoundingly expelling a European power, we established U.S. Naval supremacy in the hemisphere, and proved the importance of modern fleet tactics, honed at the U.S. Naval War College.

A couple of decades later, the United States constructed the Panama Canal, perhaps the greatest legacy of American Naval power.

While truly an engineering marvel, it also initially served American mercantilist interests. After World War I, traffic through the canal increased to five-thousand ships a year and has grown ever since, connecting key U.S. shipping routes for multi-national corporations.

From its very inception, until 1979, the canal was operated and patrolled by the United States. But it was established by our military, and built on land that we helped a secessionist Panama withdraw from Colombia.

Many would argue that this approach advanced our interests in the Americas—and it very well may have. But over the last century, this approach also bred resentment and distrust.

In hindsight, U.S. policy too often resorted to military and economic intervention for the narrowest of political and commercial reasons— evolving into the proxy fights of the Cold War, arbitrated not on the shores of the United States and the Soviet Union – but on the battlefields of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala.

During these years, the U.S. government allegedly backed political assassinations in Argentina, armed regimes known to have committed gross human rights violations including Pinochet’s Chile, and instigated coups against democratically elected governments. We were retreating from our most enduring democratic principles.

More recently, since the fall of the Soviet Union, US foreign policy in the region has evolved even further, to view Latin America only through three narrow lenses:
· Elections,
· Trade,
· and Drugs.

In my view, this construct is based on a deeply flawed analysis—not only of Latin American history and society, but also, of how best to pursue our national interests in this new era, in this new century.

This flawed analysis assumes Latin America to be a monolith – and sees political development only in the narrow sense of elections, rather than in the broad sense of civil society and institutions, of social contracts and the rule of law.

This flawed analysis also sees “free trade” as a panacea to Latin America’s social and economic woes, instead of embracing holistic development, which includes not only trade, but also institution-building, infrastructure, education, foreign aid and direct investment.

And lastly, the current analysis says “stay the course” in our failed policies of drug eradication and demand- reduction (both at home and abroad) instead of strengthening civilian law enforcement and justice institutions, replacing black market economies with legitimate economic investment, and creating smarter anti-drug programs.

I understand and accept that Elections, Trade, and Drugs will need to remain necessary components of any new policy in the region.

But alone, they have never been sufficient for bringing about real holistic change that the hemisphere requires, that its people demand, and that serves our interests.

Compounding this flawed analysis is perhaps an equally flawed conclusion: America’s influence in the world is waning.

In my assessment, I see something very different. I see, as Farheed Zakaria has argued, not the diminishing power of the United States, but rather, the increasing influence of the rest of the world.

This is to be celebrated because it means for example a Europe that is more self-sufficient, more capable of handling its own economic interests and increasingly, its own security—to the benefit of the United States. Clearly our interests are enhanced through a stronger Europe.

The same can be said for a strong Latin America.

Certainly, no one would argue that Latin America’s development today is comparable to that of the European Union.

But a stronger, more prosperous and democratic Latin America that can handle it’s own political, social and economic affairs is in everyone’s interests, especially our own.

I do not suggest that Latin America is more important than Europe, let alone China, or East Asia, or that Latin America should demand more of our attention than other regions of the world.

But I will make a case that Latin America is of critical importance to the United States, and our continued engagement with the region is vital.

Our southern neighbors are closer than ever to completing the transition to stable, democratic civil societies, ones with social contracts, whose governments are responding to the demands of their people.

They are beginning to tackle crime and violence, promising to reduce poverty and inequality, and working to end impunity by extending the rule of law to its citizens.

With the exception of Cuba, every nation in the Western Hemisphere has a democratically elected government. And Latin Americans are taking advantage of the right to vote.

Given the burgeoning conditions of these democracies, how will we in the United States adjust our worldview and our policies towards our neighbors in order to promote our mutual interests without stifling this progress?

Will we seek to dominate the hemisphere, or will we work in partnership to help our neighbors fully manage and complete their transition, in a partnership that advances all of our interests?

The answer should be clear to all of us.

I believe the time has arrived to start fresh and forge a new “strategic partnership in the Americas,” based on mutual respect and a commitment to three key principles:

· public security and the rule of law;
· reduction in poverty and inequality; and
· energy integration and innovation;

A Common Public Security Agenda

Any notion of public security should include physical security from crime, political violence, and narco-terrorism. But long-term security is immutably linked as well to the Rule of Law, for safeguarding civil society requires reliable and effective civilian institutions, including a dependable police force, an impartial judicial system, and a trustworthy military under civilian control.

These institutions will serve as critical stabilizing forces to ensure that free peoples can govern themselves and that their rights are protected not by force or favor.

Beyond institution building, the Americas need to dismantle environments in which criminality thrives.

Hidden economies, rife with corruption and lawlessness tend to serve as petri dishes in which drug traffickers, terrorists and gangs thrive—almost like micro versions of failed states within a larger country.

In my view, the Administration should be credited for proposing a new bilateral agreement called the Mérida initiative to address these exact concerns in Mexico.

Unfortunately, this plan was concocted under the old “war on drugs” paradigm without striving to address a more comprehensive notion of public security and the rule of law.

The Mérida initiative will never succeed if we do not work to put in place adequate institutions that can systemically address public security and the rule of law.

Latin America will need well-trained and equipped military forces to confront the most violent criminals.

But I would strongly argue that the region also needs equally well-trained and equipped police and civilian authorities in a robust justice system to enforce and uphold the rule of law.

Colombia still struggles with the demobilization of paramilitaries, impunity and other human rights violations.

It has made progress towards advancing its citizens’ security and establishing the rule of law.
Colombia has faced a 40-year onslaught waged by powerful terrorist organizations bent on destroying the state.

Thousands of citizens were murdered and kidnapped. In one particularly brazen instance, guerillas linked to the Medellin drug cartel laid siege to the Colombian Palace of Justice for 26 hours, and assassinated eleven Supreme Court Justices.

In light of a violent history, and in light of the complex challenges still facing Colombia, it seems to me our narrow focus on a bilateral trade agreements makes little sense. Bilateral trade with the United States is important, but it’s only one element.

“Free Trade” between Colombia and America is not a panacea—we should stop selling it as such.

President Uribe of Colombia has focused his efforts on engaging the United States, but he needs to apply the same energy engaging his neighbors.

President Uribe needs to spend as much time travelling to Argentina, Brazil and other neighbors as frequently as he travels to Washington.

In doing so, he will be forging deeper political, social and economic relationships.

Latin America’s security, and economic future isn’t just tied to bilateral deals with the United States.

Regional trade and political engagement will far better serve everyone’s interests along with independently negotiated and instituted trade deals with the United States.

An episode along the Colombia-Ecuador border demonstrated just weeks ago, that public security also requires Latin American nations and key regional organizations engage in robust diplomacy with one another to effectively handle and contain their own security challenges—and when they do so, all of our interests are advanced.

With the leadership of ad-hoc organizations like the Rio Group and through the Organization of American States (OAS), Latin American diplomats were able to defuse tensions that could have boiled over into a serious regional conflict.

In the end, Colombia issued an apology and Ecuador walked back from its explosive rhetoric.

In addition, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, who was trying to enflame tensions by casting himself as a protector of Latin America from an imperial United States and its ally Colombia, was instead exposed as a political instigator.

Soon-to-be-released evidence captured during the raid into Ecuador will likely uncover whether and to what extent President Chavez has been assisting the narco-terrorist FARC organization.

I believe that this case illustrates an important lesson to us all — one that I regret to say is not all that new.

We are far more likely to achieve our goals when we join a multilateral coalition than when we saber-rattle and allow ourselves to be cast as the strawman.

Because Latin Americans resolved this incident, unclouded by apparent U.S. intervention or presumed ulterior motives, our interests were actually advanced. Political stability was restored and the FARC’s capabilities were damaged.

President Hugo Chavez’s greatest fear is regional isolation.

That is why before jumping in a unilateral fashion to add Venezuela to the U.S. State Department’s official list of state sponsors of terrorism, which would be symbolic at best, and only serve as fodder for Chavez’s distractions, we should instead enlist support from key regional players to collectively address regional challenges.

This lesson of statecraft extends beyond our dealings with regional troublemakers. In developing a common public security agenda, it is critical that we look for ways to expand military ties with regional partners.

Regrettably, we have allowed a tertiary dispute over the International Criminal Court to restrict our military’s ability to make such connections to fully engage with counterparts in Latin America.

I recognize that there are legitimate concerns with the International Criminal Court.

But as General Craddock, formerly of SOUTHCOM, has acknowledged, it makes no sense to prevent military-to-military contact with countries that need our assistance but have not entered into bilateral “Article 98” agreements that immunize American troops from prosecution and extradition to the ICC.

It is long past time we resolve this dispute and allow our military to do its job, so that as future military leaders, you can more fully engage with your counterparts in this hemisphere.

Engaging with regional leaders and strengthening regional institutions does not just increase our public security, it is also an essential element in tackling the second element of this new paradigm: Poverty and inequality.

Tackling Poverty and Inequality

Poverty and inequality in the western hemisphere continue to be among the most destructive forces in the region.
Forty percent of Latin Americans live in poverty, approximately 100 million of Latin Americans live on less than $2 a day.

Inequality also plagues our hemisphere. Income and wealth disparities in Latin America are the worst in the world.

Social and economic exclusion are rampant, fostering conditions in which political radicalism thrives and crime rates soar to six times greater than the rest of the world.

As a result of these debilitating conditions, millions of Latin Americans have emigrated from the region in search of better opportunities—nearly 100 million have left since World War Two.

In 2005, 22 million Latin Americans worked in the developed world, returning $54 billion in remittances – more than all the foreign direct investment and foreign aid for the entire region.

While this money helps many families survive, it cannot replace economic growth through sustainable development.

Our seemingly singular focus on free trade for the region is not achieving the holistic results it promised—and I think it’s clear it never could.

Trade is just one component to economic growth.

But beyond trade, our hemisphere’s record on fighting poverty and inequality is indeed grim.

Fortunately, over the last two decades, Latin American nations have embraced democratic principles.

Social contracts now bind these governments to respond to the needs of their citizens and address poverty and inequality.

As part of these social contracts, Latin Americans are increasingly demanding that their governments make key investments-- in local infrastructure, education, public health, as well as the critical institutions for promoting the rule of law.

Such initiatives will hopefully create jobs and sustainable growth. I have long held the view that in the final analysis, the best social program for any country, is a good job.

But, Latin America has not made adequate investments in technology, necessary to compete in the 21st century. In fact, a mere 1 percent of the world investment’s in research and development goes to Latin America – South Korea alone spends more on R&D than does all of Latin America.

While its economic growth has been a brisk 5 percent over the last half decade, it still lags behind Africa, putting Latin America dead last in terms of economic growth measured against the rest of the developing world.

At the margins, the United States must play an important role in helping to foster sustainable growth, through private investment, increased foreign aid, and support of the Inter-American Development Bank.

As a starting point for transitioning Latin America to the new economy, we should look to powers in the region who have developed technological innovations to utilize their alternative energy resources.

In addition to freeing countries from the shackles of oil dependence, these innovations are creating thousands of new jobs.

And so a third component of our new paradigm, therefore, must be a region-wide energy dialogue that focuses on two key goals— greater energy integration and the development of alternative energy sources and technologies.

Energy Integration and Innovation

I hardly need to explain our own energy concerns, as gas prices continue to skyrocket.

I would note what many fail to recognize—Latin America supplies more oil to the United States than the Middle East.

Some fifty percent of our oil imports come from the western hemisphere.

With oil prices at a record high and few signs that they will recede, there is an increasing danger of what Tom Friedman calls the “First Law of Petropolitics” – that is, as oil prices rise, freedom declines in certain countries rich with oil resources.

This is because these regimes no longer have to open themselves to foreign investment or educate and empower their people in order to gain wealth and stay in power.

While this is not a hard and fast rule, it certainly applies to Venezuela.

What we have been too slow realize is that renewable energy can also advance our national security, while lessening all of our dependence on unsavory regimes who happen to be rich in fossil fuels.

To better serve all of our energy and security needs, the United States should ramp up our own commitment to funding alternative energy research, and work with our regional partners to achieve the most efficient use and distribution of energy.

One way we can achieve these goals is by building trans-national pipelines to better integrate our energy. Here, the Inter-American Development Bank can and has been helpful in supporting both import and export of our energy resources.

Over the longer term, we must look to a future beyond oil and natural gas-- not only to protect our planet, but also to modernize our economy, and fuel future generations.

And I believe that nuclear power should be part of this equation.

Today, only about 3 percent of Latin America’s electricity comes from nuclear power.

Despite the legitimate controversy this subject creates, its efficiency, enormous capacity, and relatively clean emissions are difficult to ignore.

Already, Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico are planning expansion of their nuclear capacity. And Chile may be next.

The United States should work with our neighbors to address environmental and safety concerns through technical assistance to ensure that nuclear power is safe, secure and effective.
But United States also stands to gain from advances made by our Latin American neighbors in alternative and renewable energy.

In this respect one of our neighbors is already working to secure our collective future, and advance our national interests— Brazil.

In three years’ time, the flex-fuel car market in Brazil went from comprising only about 6 percent of that market to three-quarters of cars on Brazilian roads.

Why? Because their government demonstrated bold leadership and resourcefulness.

It is time for the rest of the Americas to do the same. We must continue expanding our capacity to developing more affordable, sustainable alternative sources of energy.

The Common Thread: Engagement

The common thread tying all of these initiatives together is bold engagement.

Working towards a common agenda on public security and the rule of law; reducing poverty and inequality; and energy integration and innovation, all require sustained engagement with every member of the hemisphere.
If bold engagement in the Americas is to work—there must be mutual respect.

The Strategic Partnership for the Americas which I have just outlined, can begin in one place— Cuba.

Our Cuba policy has been agonizingly static for almost fifty years.

It has neither served America’s interests nor brought democracy to the island.

When Fidel Castro ceded power to his brother Raul, we reached a critical moment.

We all now have a choice -- either we engage the Cuban people and leadership to help shape the landscape for the next fifty years, or we remain on the sidelines to no one’s benefit.

I believe we must dramatically alter our posture towards Cuba, by ending the trade embargo, lifting travel restrictions and caps on remittances to the struggling Cuban people, and by engaging in bilateral and multilateral talks on issues of mutual interest.

The only certainty guaranteed by our Cuba policy over the past forty years has been the continuation of Fidel Castro’s grip on power.

Once we embark on this road to reform, I am confident that it will be nearly impossible for the Cuban government and its people to turn back.

And the same will be true for us.

Ladies and Gentlemen of Annapolis, forging a new relationship with our southern neighbors is a daunting task.

I can think of no better representatives of American goodwill and leadership than our Navy’s future leaders to answer this call.
In spite of past missteps, let us not forget that it is not just we Americans who want a new relationship.

As you travel around this hemisphere, and you stumble across the many Avenidas de Kennedy winding throughout the cities of Latin America, I hope that, like me, you too will be humbled by the spirit of friendship and admiration that exists for the ideals that is America at its best.

And remember, the person for whom these avenues was named was a young naval officer who became our 35th President.

We may not know the names of the new avenues built during this new century, but we know where they should start.

And we know where they must lead.

Let us begin our journey down that path.

-30-

AN OIL EXPERT ARGUES THAT WASHINGTON COULD DO WITHOUT VENEZUELAN OIL IMPORTS

2008-03-25T08:53:00.000-04:00

This comes from a former senior Venezuelan oil official, who asked me not to be identified by name. He argues that the United States could cut Venezuelan oil imports without causing major disruptions in the U.S. economy. I wanted to share his comments with you, and get your comments. Here he goes:

"Lei tu columna ayer en el Herald. Trae una serie de conversaciones muy interesantes que has tenido con autoridades Colombianas y con expertos forenses en materia de computacion. Excelente tu analisis que de paso comparto. Esta vez quisiera reforzarte algunos puntos en relacion a lo esencial de Venezuela como suplidor a USA y si esto seria un atenuante tal que evitaria que USA le perdone su ingerencia y patrocinio a la FARC.
El crudo Venezolano representa solo el 6% del consumo diario de USA. En una situacion extraordinaria como la que se impondria por sanciones de pais promotor de terrorismo, este crudo puede perfectamente ser reemplazado por los casi 700 millones de la reserva estrategica [SPR] en las cavernas de sal de Louisiana. Es decir alli hay el equivalente de unos 540 dias [1 y 1/2 annos] de importaciones de Vzla. Lo critico es la importacion a USA de productos refinados, dada la situcion de crisis de refinacion inclusive a escala mundial, y en especial la gasolina de motor de la cual se consumen diariamente unos 9 Millones de barriles por dia.
Como en la mayoria de paises industrializados, hay solo 21 dias de stock en USA. Sin embargo en los momentos y debido a la crisis operativa de PDVSA en Vzla, solo estamos enviando un cargamento mensual de 350 mil barriles al mes. Esto es solo el 0.1 % del consumo diario.
Lo que es mas, en una situacion como esta, si USA impone una reduccion de la velocidad maxima en carreteras de 65 a 60 mph [en la crisis de los 70s se bajo la velocidad maxima de 65 a 55 mph], se ahorraria un 10% del consumo de combustibles; es decir 100 veces la cantidad que envia Venezuela.
Algo mas, el huracan Katrina infligió en el mercado petrolero de USA un dano que se ha calculado en:
1. refinacion: de 3 a 5 MM bpd y el cierre de la ultima refineria se mantuvo casi 10 meses; esto es equivalente a mas de 300 Hugos [unidad actual de exportacion de productos de Vzla de 10,000 BPD];
2. En produccion se tuvo cerrado hasta 3 MM BOPD en el Golfo hasta por 5 a 6 meses [ 2 Hugos de produccion];
Colapsó la economia de USA? claro que no, y a las dos semanas el efecto de habia diluido.
La unica manera que Chavez puede hacerle un dano significativo al mercado es si cierra totalmente su produccion y refinacion. Pero, en ese caso, no duraria muchas semanas aun decretando un estado de emegencia y asumiendo poderes dictatoriales."

INTERESTING EXCHANGE ON THE CONFLICT BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND THE VENEZUELA-ECUADOR ALLIANCE

2008-03-09T15:19:00.000-04:00

Interesting exchange on my Sunday column on the microphone war between Colombia and the Venezuela-Ecuador alliance, and the fact that Colombia now has computer files that it could use at any time to demand United Nations sanctions against Venezuela and Ecuador for violating U.N. Security Council anti-terrorism resolutions. Here is former Amb. Diego Arria's entry:
"As a former Representative of Venezuela before the United Nations and to the UN Security Council, and until last year Assistant Secretary General as Special Adviser to the UN Secretary General, allow me to address Mr. Richard Cheesman specific comment : “Even if Ecuador and Venezuela had provided material support for the FARC it would not be a violation of the UN resolution outlawing material support for terrorism- as the liar Mr. Oppenheimer suggests. The UN does not have FARC on its list of terrorist organisations and the US empire doesn't have the right to put it on the list for them”
1.Regardless of the UN list-which exists-the crimes committed by FARC are considered crimes against humanity and as such could prompt the UN Security Council Commission to include them in their list-and of course could allow the Security Council to act-if such acts proved to be a threat to the international peace and security.
2. Cooperating with an organization like FARC that kidnap, torture and assassinate people represent clear violations of the UN Security Council Resolution 1373 regarding the duties of the states on this matter, as well as the Inter American Convention that considers that terrorism represents a serious threat to democratic values and reaffirms among others: the International Convention against the Taking of Hostages, adopted by the General Assembly of the United Nations on December 17, 1979; the International Conventions for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings, adopted by the General Assembly of the United Nations on December 15, 1997; for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism, adopted by the General Assembly of the United Nations on December 9, 1999.
3. The UN Security Council Resolution does not cite any list-nor needs any list to act. The resolution “Expresses the Security Council to take all necessary steps in order to ensure the full implementation of this resolution, in accordance with its responsibilities under the Charter”
4. Furthermore the Resolution cites only "entities or persons involved in terrorists acts". Does not mentions lists because it does not need lists to act. The resolution defines acts of terrorism (see below) like the obligation to deny safe haven to those who finance, plan, support, or commit terrorist acts, or provide safe havens. It is now public that Ecuador and Venezuela cooperated with the FARC by providing them finance (Venezuela) safe havens from which to commit terrorist acts (Ecuador and not yet documented Venezuela as well) .
5. Moreover the UN Security Resolution reaffirms: the inherent right of individual (Colombia in this case) or collective self-defence as recognized by the Charter of the United Nations as reiterated in resolution 1368 and reaffirms the need to combat by all means, in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts,
6. Acting under Chapter VII (**see below) of the Charter of the United Nations, all States shall: (a) Refrain from providing any form of support, active or passive, to entities or persons involved in terrorist acts, including by suppressing recruitment of members of terrorist groups and eliminating the supply of weapons to terrorists; (b) Take the necessary steps to prevent the commission of terrorist acts, including by provision of early warning to other States by exchange of information; (c) Deny safe haven to those who finance, plan, support, or commit terrorist acts, or provide safe havens; (d) Prevent those who finance, plan, facilitate or commit terrorist acts from using their respective territories for those purposes . It is clear that both Venezuela and Ecuador violated those duties.
**Chapter VII sets out the UN Security Council's powers to maintain peace. It allows the Council to "determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression" and to take military and nonmilitary action to "restore international peace and security".
Diego E. Arria

EL ASOMBROSO GIRO DE CHAVEZ SOBRE LAS FARC

2008-03-05T16:37:00.000-05:00

A la luz del minuto de silencio que pidio el Presidente venezolano Hugo Chavez en memoria del difunto jefe de las FARC de Colombia Raul Reyes, y de las afirmaciones del gobierno de Colombia en el sentido de que se encontraron pruebas de que Chavez ofrecio 300 millones de dolares a las FARC, es interesante ver el video de YouTube del discurso de Chavez el 9 de noviembre del 2004, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgd2Sy7Rr2A, donde Chavez juro "por Dios y mi santa madre" que nunca apoyo ni nunca apoyaria la guerrilla colombiana. Que opinan de este giro de Chavez? Se saco la careta, o cambio de parecer?

SOUTH AMERICAN CONFLICT UNMASKS CHAVEZ'S SUPPORT FOR REBEL GROUPS

2008-03-05T16:27:00.000-05:00

In light of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez's call for one minute of silence for slain Colombian FARC guerrilla leader Raul Reyes, and Colombia's announcement that it has found computer records referring to a $300 million Chavez government aid package for the FARC, it's interesting to watch Chavez's Nov. 9, 2004, speech in which he swore "by God and my sacred mother" that he never supported nor would ever support a Colombian rebel group. Watch it here on http://www.youtube.com/, at the following link, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgd2Sy7Rr2A, and tell us what you think.

EL LEGADO DE FIDEL - LO ABSOLVERA LA HISTORIA?

2008-02-25T08:35:00.000-05:00

Ahora que Fidel Castro ha renunciado oficialmente a la presidencia del Consejo de Estado de Cuba, la gran pregunta es cual es el saldo de su revolucion. Aunque segun datos de las Naciones Unidas Cuba ha logrado muy buenos indices en educacion y salud, tambien es cierto que las estadisticas de las Naciones Unidas de 1957 situaban a Cuba entre los paises con mejores estandares de salud y educacion de America latina. Segun el Departamento de Estado (http://www.state.gov/p/wha/ci/14776.htm), algunos indices de Cuba en 1957 eran mejores que los actuales. Estan de acuerdo con esa afirmacion, o no?

FIDEL CASTRO'S LEGACY -- WILL HISTORY ABSOLVE HIM?

2008-02-25T08:09:00.000-05:00

Now the Fidel Castro has officially stepped down as President of Cuba, the big question is whether history will absolve him. It's true that Castro has helped improved Cuba's health and education standards, but it is also true that Cuba was one of Latin America's most developed countries in 1959. According to the U.S. State Department, Cuba's 1959 statistics looked as good or better than today's (http://www.state.gov/p/wha/ci/14776.htm). Do you agree, or not?

EN CUBA, CAMBIOS DISFRAZADOS DE CONTINUIDAD

2008-02-20T09:59:00.000-05:00

Lo que veremos tras la renuncia de Fidel Castro como presidente del Consejo de Estado es cambios disfrazados de continuidad. Los nuevos (en realidad, viejos) lideres cubanos empezaran a hacer reformas economicas cada vez mas audaces, pero siempre aduciendo estar obrando bajo la inspiracion y guia del maximo lider de la revolucion. Estas de acuerdo? Que opinas? Veremos cambios disfrazados de continuidad, o continuidad disfrazada de cambio?

COMING IN CUBA: CHANGE DISGUISED AS CONTINUITY

2008-02-20T09:52:00.000-05:00

What we are going to see in Cuba from now on, after Fidel Castro's resignation as President of the Council of State, is change disguised as continuity. The new leadership -Raul Castro, Carlos Lage, etc -- will start making small, incremental changes in the economy, but always claiming to be sticking to Fidel's wishes. They will even quote from Fidel's speeches (probably out of context) to do things that Fidel would never have done. What do you think? Will we see change disguised as continuity, or continuity disguised as change?

WHAT McCAIN'S TOP ADVISERS ON LATIN AMERICAN AFFAIRS HAVE IN COMMON

2008-02-11T13:56:00.000-05:00

In my last column in The Miami Herald, I wrote that presumptive Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain's most influential advisors on Latin American affairs have one thing in common: They are Cuban Americans from Florida. Close aides to McCain caution that it's too early to talk about who will be their campaign's Latin American affairs, but when pressed for names of who have been briefing him recently, they mention Florida's Cuban-American Sen. Mel Martinez and Cuban-American congress members Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros Lehtinen. My question to readers: what do you think of McCain's most influential advisers on Latin American affairs?

LOS ASESORES DE MCCAIN SOBRE AMERICA LATINA

2008-02-11T12:49:00.000-05:00

Como senale en mi ultima columna del Miami Herald, los asesores de asuntos latinoamericanos más influyentes del probable candidato republicano John McCain tienen algo en común: casi todos son cubanoamericanos del estado de Florida. Los colaboradores más cercanos a McCain advierten que aún es demasiado temprano para decir quiénes son los asesores de asuntos latinoamericanos del candidato. Pero cuando se les pregunta quiénes han estado asesorando a McCain durante los últimos meses en temas regionales, mencionan al senador cubanoestadounidense de la Florida, Mel Martínez y a los congresistas del mismo origen Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Mario Díaz-Balart e Ileana Ross Lehtinen. ?Es bueno o malo que McCain tenga a los 4 legisladores de Florida como asesores sobre temas latinoamericanos?

HISPANICS FLOOD THE POLLS ON SUPER-TUESDAY -- THANKS TO REPUBLICANS' ANTI-IMMIGRATION CAMPAIGN

2008-02-08T09:45:00.000-05:00

Get ready for a tsunami of Hispanic votes in November's general election: If Super Tuesday primary results were any indication, angry Latino voters will flood the polls, energized by what many see as a growing anti-immigrant sentiment in the country. Latino voters turned out in record numbers on Tuesday, especially to back Democratic candidates. Read the full column here, and let us know what you think.

DO AMERICANS CARE ABOUT LATIN AMERICA? NOT REALLY

2008-02-08T09:42:00.000-05:00

WASHINGTON D.C. -- No wonder that presidential hopefuls from both parties have almost forgotten to mention Latin America in their televised debates so far: polls show that most Americans see the region as one of the least important ones to U.S. national interests. Read the entire column here, and let us know what you think.

LA VISION DE LATINOAMERICA EN LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS

2008-02-08T09:41:00.000-05:00

No es extraño que los candidatos presidenciales de ambos partidos casi no hayan mencionado a Latinoamérica en sus debates televisados hasta el momento: las encuestas revelan que para la enorme mayoría de los estadounidenses América Latina es una de las regiones menos importantes del mundo. Lee la columna entera aqui, y dinos lo que piensas.

LA AVALANCHA DEL VOTO HISPANO EN EE.UU.

2008-02-08T09:36:00.000-05:00

Todo parece indicar que veremos un tsunami de votantes hispanos en las elecciones de noviembre: si los resultados de las primarias del Supermartes son un indicio, los votantes latinos acudirán en masa a votar, muchos de ellos en reacción a lo que ven como un creciente sentimiento antiinmigrantes en este país. Lee la columna aqui, y dinos lo que piensas.

LATIN AMERICA "FALLING OFF THE MAP" AT WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM IN DAVOS

2008-01-29T08:50:00.000-05:00

Looking at the list of political leaders, business tycoons, and academic stars from across the globe participating at last week's World Economic Forum gathering in Davos, Switzerland, it was hard not to notice that there were very few Latin Americans at the conference. That's bad news for the region. Read here why, and let us know what you think.

AMERICA LATINA AUSENTE EN EL FORO DE DAVOS

2008-01-29T08:45:00.000-05:00

Observando la lista de líderes políticos, magnates empresariales y estrellas académicas que participaron en el Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, Suiza, la semana pasada, resultó difícil no advertir que había muy pocos latinoamericanos en la reunión. Se trata de una mala noticia para America Latina. Lee aqui por que, y dinos lo que piensas.

MEXICO'S CENTER-RIGHT GOVERNMENT MAY TURN ITS BACK ON PRO-DEMOCRACY FORCES IN CUBA

2008-01-24T08:26:00.000-05:00

What irony! Mexico's center-right President Felipe Calderón, a man who made his political life fighting for democracy, may become his country's first leader in 15 years to improve ties with Cuba's dictatorship and to turn his back on the island's peaceful opposition. Read the entire report here, and let us know what you think.

IRONIA DEL DIA: GOBIERNO DE CENTRO-DERECHA DE MEXICO SE ACERCA A CUBA

2008-01-24T08:22:00.000-05:00

Ironías de la política: el presidente mexicano Felipe Calderón, un político de centroderecha que hizo su vida política luchando por la democracia, podría convertirse en el primer mandatario mexicano de los últimos quince años que se acerca a la dictadura cubana y le da la espalda a la oposición pacífica de la isla. Lee la columna entera aqui, y dinos lo que piensas.

GROWING TENSIONS COULD HELP BOTH CHAVEZ AND URIBE AT HOME

2008-01-22T18:38:00.000-05:00

Here's an interesting theory: the ongoing escalation of Colombian-Venezuelan tensions will help the two countries' charismatic leaders become even more powerful and win third terms in office. Read the whole column here, and let us know what you think.

LOS QUE SALDRAN BIEN PARADOS DEL CONFLICTO ENTRE VENEZUELA Y COLOMBIA

2008-01-22T18:35:00.000-05:00

He aquí una teoría interesante: la actual escalada de las tensiones entre Colombia y Venezuela ayudará a los líderes carismáticos de ambos países a consolidarse en el poder y lograr un tercer período presidencial. Lee la columna entera aqui, y dinos lo que piensas.

CHINA-INDIA TRADE DEAL WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON LATIN AMERICA -- AND NOT ALWAYS POSITIVE

2008-01-17T08:05:00.000-05:00

This week's agreement between China and India to dramatically boost their economic ties will have a major impact on Latin America, and it may not always be good news for the region. Read here the reasons why, and let us know what you think.

CHINA, INDIA Y EL FUTURO DE AMERICA LATINA

2008-01-17T07:50:00.000-05:00

El acuerdo sellado esta semana entre China e India para aumentar dramáticamente sus relaciones económicas tendrá un gran impacto sobre Latinoamérica, y no será algo enteramente positivo para la región. Lee aqui porque, y dinos lo que piensas.

THE FIVE MYTHS OF ANTI-IMMIGRATION GROUPS

2008-01-14T17:56:00.000-05:00

It's time to debunk the biggest myths of the antiimmigration movement that has swept this country over the past two years, and may still have an impact on the 2008 presidential race: that they are not anti-Hispanic nor oppose legal immigration, but are only against ''illegal'' immigration. Find out here what the 5 myths are, and let us know what you think.

LOS CINCO MITOS DE LOS GRUPOS ANTI-INMIGRANTES

2008-01-14T17:54:00.000-05:00

Ya es hora de demoler el mayor mito del movimiento contra la inmigración que ha proliferado en los últimos dos años en Estados Unidos, y que podría incidir en el resultado de la contienda presidencial del 2008: que los grupos antiinmigrantes no son antihispanos ni están contra la inmigración legal, sino que tan sólo combaten la inmigración ``ilegal''. Lee aqui los 5 mitos de los anti-inmigrantes, y dinos que opinas.

ANTI-IMMIGRATION CARD DIDN'T WORK IN NEW HAMPSHIRE - IS IT A DOG THAT BARKS BUT DOESN'T BITE?

2008-01-10T09:35:00.000-05:00

The anti-immigration card didn't work in New Hampshire. Contrary to expectations, McCain won despite virulent attacks by fellow Republican hopeful Mitt Romney and others that he was being too soft on the estimated 12 million undocumented immigrants in the country. Read our analysis of the New Hampshire primary here, and let us know what you think.

LAS PRIMARIAS DE NEW HAMPSHIRE, Y LA DERROTA DE LOS ANTI-INMIGRANTES

2008-01-10T09:14:00.000-05:00

La carta antiinmigratoria no les sirvió de mucho a los candidatos republicanos en New Hampshire. Contrariamente a lo esperado, McCain triunfó a pesar de los virulentos ataques de sus correligionarios republicanos, encabezados por Mitt Romney, que lo acusaron de ser demasiado blando con los 12 millones de inmigrantes indocumentados. Lee aqui esta y otras conclusiones sobre las primarias de New Hampshire, y dinos que opinas.

LATIN AMERICA GREW IN 2007, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS OTHER REGIONS

2007-12-24T11:45:00.000-05:00

As 2007 comes to a close, here goes an evaluation of Latin America's performance: The region is doing fairly well, but is continuing to fall dangerously behind the rest of the developing world. Read the whole column and my (humble) predictions for 2008, and let us know what you think.

LO BUENO Y LO MALO DEL 2007, Y LO QUE VENDRA EN EL 2008

2007-12-24T11:42:00.000-05:00

Ahora que está llegando a su fin el 2007, veamos como le fue a América Latina en el año que termina: la buena noticia es que le ha ido bien, y la mala noticia es que le ha ido menos bien que al resto del mundo en desarrollo. Lee el texto entero y las predicciones para el 2008 aqui, y dinos lo que piensas.

GROWING SECURITY GIVES MANY HAITIANS A SENSE OF HOPE

2007-12-20T08:15:00.000-05:00

PORT-AU-PRINCE -- For a country that has been in political and economic turmoil for several years, I've found a fragile but unmistakable sense of optimism here. Read more about my trip to Haiti here, and let us know what you think.

UNA LUZ DE ESPERANZA PARA EL PAIS MAS POBRE DE LA REGION

2007-12-20T08:11:00.000-05:00

Considerando que Haití ha estado sumido en el caos político y económico durante varios años, me encontré con un clima de frágil pero indudable optimismo durante una visita al país esta semana. Enterate sobre mi viaje a Haiti aqui, y dinos lo que piensas.

ARGENTINA'S NEW PRESIDENT STARTS ON THE WRONG FOOT

2007-12-17T11:49:00.000-05:00

Argentina's new president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, started her first week in office on the wrong foot: She needlessly moved closer to Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and away from the United States. Fernández's knee-jerk reaction to a Miami court's indictment alleging that Venezuela contributed money to Argentina's 2007 presidential elections was a textbook case of political inexperience, bad advice, greater-than-expected ties to Venezuela's petro-populist government or all of the above. Read the full text here, and let us know what you think.;

EL PRIMER TRASPIE DE CRISTINA DE KIRCHNER

2007-12-17T11:43:00.000-05:00

La nueva presidenta de Argentina, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, empezó su primera semana en el poder con el pie izquierdo --se acercó innecesariamente al presidente Venezolano Hugo Chávez y se alejó de Estados Unidos. La reacción visceral de Fernández a una mención en una corte federal de Miami según la cual el gobierno venezolano habría contribuido con dinero a una campaña presidencial en las recientes elecciones argentinas del 2007 fue un caso típico de inexperiencia política, mal asesoramiento, vínculos más profundos de los que se creía con el gobierno petro-populista de Venezuela, o todas las opciones anteriores juntas. Lee toda la columna aqui, y dinos lo que piensas.

NEW U.N. HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL IS LITTLE MORE THAN A BAD JOKE

2007-12-13T10:38:00.000-05:00

There wasn't much to celebrate on International Human Rights Day earlier this week. There is growing evidence that a recently created United Nations Human Rights Council that many hoped would step up international scrutiny of rights abusers worldwide has turned out to be a fiasco. Read here why, and let us know what you think.

UN DIA TRISTE PARA LOS DERECHOS HUMANOS

2007-12-13T10:35:00.000-05:00

No hubo mucho que festejar en el Día Internacional de los Derechos Humanos que se celebró esta semana: hay cada vez más evidencias que el Consejo de Derechos Humanos de las Naciones Unidas, que fue creado hace dos años para denunciar los abusos a los derechos humanos en todo el mundo, ha resultado ser un fiasco. Lee el texto completo aqui, y dinos lo que piensas.

SUNDAY'S UNIVISION REPUBLICAN DEBATE -- IF IT CAN BE CALLED THAT

2007-12-10T16:53:00.000-05:00

What do you think of Sunday's Univision debate of Republican presidential candidates? I'm considering writing about it this week. Any thoughts?

WHAT'S AHEAD FOR VENEZUELA'S COMMANDER CHAVEZ -- WILL HE MAKE A COMEBACK IN 2008?

2007-12-10T16:50:00.000-05:00

While Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez suffered a huge defeat in the Dec. 2 referendum -- independent election monitors say he lost by a wider margin than officially announced and only accepted his loss under pressure -- he may still make a significant comeback in 2008. Read the whole column here, and let us know whether you agree.

EL FUTURO DEL COMANDANTE CHAVEZ

2007-12-10T16:48:00.000-05:00

Aunque el presidente venezolano Hugo Chávez sufrió una gran derrota en el referéndum del 2 de diciembre -los conteos electorales independientes señalan que perdió por un margen más amplio del que oficialmente se anunció, y todo parece indicar que solo aceptó el resultado bajo presión militar -también hay motivos para pensar que podría recuperarse políticamente en el 2008. Lee el texto completo aqui, y dinos lo que piensas.

OPPOSITION WON BY MORE THAN OFFICIAL 1.4% MARGIN ---LA OPOSICION GANO POR MAS DEL 1.4% ANUNCIADO OFICIALMENTE

2007-12-05T09:10:00.000-05:00

AS WE ANTICIPATED, VENEZUELA'S OPPOSITION SEEMS TO HAVE WON BY A LARGER MARGIN THAN THE OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED 1.4 PERCENT. SEE COMMUNIQUE FROM OJO ELECTORAL BELOW. / COMO LO ANTICIPAMOS AQUI, LA OPOSICION VENEZOLANA PARECE HABER GANADO POR UN MARGEN MAYOR AL 1.4 POR CIENTO ANUNCIADO OFICIALMENTE. VEAN EL COMUNICADO DE OJO ELECTORAL, EL ORGANISMO DE MONITOREO APROBADO POR EL CNE DE VENEZUELA.

Boletín sobre la observación electoral del Referendo por la Reforma Constitucional

Ojo Electoral hace del conocimiento público su informe preliminar sobre la auditoría que realizó durante la jornada electoral del 2 de diciembre de 2007.

Queremos comenzar por resaltar el cívico comportamiento de toda la ciudadanía, en una jornada que estuvo llena de expectativas y de tensión, lo cual habla del talante democrático de la sociedad venezolana. Asimismo deseamos reconocer el comportamiento de los diversos actores políticos a lo largo del día de la votación.

Queremos también resaltar el importante esfuerzo del CNE por haber cumplido de manera tan destacada con su labor institucional durante la jornada electoral de ayer.

Constatamos que el proceso se desenvolvió con tranquilidad y en condiciones de normalidad, con la excepción de algunos incidentes aislados. Reportamos también menciones realizadas por observadores de nuestra red, así como denuncias formuladas por algunos ciudadanos, en los que se señala que integrantes del Plan República se excedieron en el normal desarrollo del proceso en las mesas.

Muestra observada: La actividad desplegada por Ojo Electoral consistió en la observación directa de una muestra de mesas que abarcó más de 100.000 votantes

Funcionamiento de las máquinas de votación: de la muestra observada, la gran mayoría de las máquinas de votación funcionó correctamente. En el 12% de ellas se presentó fallas, pero fueron reparadas o reemplazadas con prontitud razonable. Apenas el 3% presentó fallas irreparables, por lo que en esas mesas se pasó al proceso manual, sin consecuencias finales en el proceso de votación.

Cierre de las mesas de votación: Las mesas cerraron en promedio a las 5:15pm. Sin embargo, se observó que, de las mesas incluidas en nuestra muestra, la que cerró más tarde, lo hizo a las 9:00pm. Asimismo Ojo Electoral debe resaltar que recibió información según la cual varias mesas se mantuvieron abiertas después de las 10 pm. Algunos sectores denunciaron que esta prórroga constituyó una irregularidad, por lo que solicitamos al CNE que investigue esta situación.

Testigos del proceso de escrutinio. En la gran mayoría de las mesas se verificó la presencia de testigos de ambas opciones durante todo el proceso y especialmente para el momento del escrutinio. Asimismo, constatamos que en las mesas observadas los representantes de las dos opciones tuvieron acceso a la copia del acta de escrutinio correspondiente.

Auditoría: La totalidad de las mesas fue seleccionada al azar para el proceso de auditoria, en presencia de testigos de ambas opciones. El proceso de auditoria se realizó sin incidentes relevantes. Sin embargo se realizaron algunas impugnaciones, las cuales no tuvieron consecuencias importantes. El resultado de la auditoria confirma los resultados arrojados por el escrutinio. No se evidenciaron diferencias significativas entre los procesos de la auditoria y el escrutinio.

Resultados obtenidos: El procesamiento de la muestra observada, ratificado por la posterior auditoría, arrojó los siguientes resultados:

Votos a favor del No Bloque A 51,6%
Votos a favor del Sí Bloque A 48,4%

Votos a favor del No Bloque B 52,1%
Votos a favor del Sí Bloque B 47,9%

Ojo Electoral presentará en su informe final sus observaciones sobre otros aspectos cruciales de este proceso electoral, como son el uso inadecuado de recursos públicos en las campañas, la necesidad de la depuración del registro electoral y el control del financiamiento de los partidos políticos o de las campañas electorales.

Ojo Electoral considera que el CNE incurrió en un injustificado retardo para presentar su primer boletín que mantuvo a la población en una situación de angustia innecesaria.

Creemos necesario informar de algunas dificultades para la realización de nuestra observación. Lamentamos que el CNE no haya difundido suficientemente la actividad de la observación nacional para facilitar nuestra actividad, así como el retardo en la entrega de las credenciales.

Por último deseamos concluir con un agradecimiento especial a la red de voluntarios de Ojo Electoral y a la red nacional de Radio Fe y Alegría por la destacada tarea realizada el día de ayer.

Consejo Directivo de Ojo Electoral: Carlos Genatios, Francisco Layrisse, Ignacio Ávalos, José Francisco Virtuoso, Luis Enrique Lander y Pedro Nikken.

Caracas, 03 de diciembre de 2007

VENEZUELA'S OPPOSITION VICTORY IS LARGER THAN IT SEEMS

2007-12-04T09:25:00.000-05:00

Venezuela's opposition victory in Sunday's referendum on President Hugo Chávez's bid to reform the constitution and create a Cuban-styled ''socialist'' totalitarian state was much more significant -- and geographically far-reaching -- than its official 50.7 to 49.3 margin would suggest. Read here the reasons why, and let us know what you think.

UNA VICTORIA MAYOR DE LO QUE PARECE

2007-12-04T09:20:00.000-05:00

La victoria de la oposición venezolana en el referéndum promovido por el presidente Hugo Chávez para reformar la Constitución y crear un Estado totalitario ''socialista'' al estilo cubano fue mucho más significativa --y podría tener mayores alcances geográficos-- de lo que podría indicar el margen oficial del 50.7 al 49.3 por ciento. Lee aqui por que, y dinos que piensas al respecto.

SUNDAY'S VOTE MAY OFFICIALLY TURN VENEZUELA INTO AN ''ELECTED DICTATORSHIP''

2007-11-29T08:05:00.000-05:00

Will Venezuela still be considered a democracy if it approves a referendum Sunday that would give President Hugo Chávez near unlimited powers? Will Chávez still qualify as an ''elected'' leader? I asked these questions earlier this week to Tom Shannon, the State Department's top official in charge of Latin American affairs. I was curious about his response, because when I asked him a few weeks ago whether Venezuela can still be considered a democracy, he answered ``Yes.'' Read his response and my opinion about it, and let us know what you think.

BRAZIL'S HUGE OIL FIND WILL LEAD TO NEW WEALTH....OR A PETRO-POPULIST GIANT

2007-11-26T09:00:00.000-05:00

No wonder that Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, proclaimed ''God is Brazilian'' after the discovery of massive oil reserves in his country earlier this month: The find could soon turn Brazil into a major oil exporter, and a big player in world affairs. But it could also threaten to derail Brazil's slow but steady march into a successful economy, and turn it into a petro-populist country...Read more about it here, and let us know what you think.

BRASIL, LA NUEVA POTENCIA PETROLERA, Y EL PELIGRO DE UN GIGANTE PETRO-POPULISTA

2007-11-26T08:55:00.000-05:00

No es extraño que el presidente brasileño Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva haya proclamado que ''Dios es brasileño'' tras el descubrimiento de enormes reservas petroleras en su país a principios de este mes: el hallazgo convertirá a Brasil en un gran exportador de petróleo, y en un país cada vez más importante a nivel mundial. Lee aqui los detalles - y los temores sobre un posible brote petro-populista en Brasil - y dinos que piensas.

HILLARY, DON'T SUCCUMB TO THE POPULISTS' ANTI-TRADE PROPAGANDA

2007-11-23T12:25:00.000-05:00

Now that Sen. Hillary Clinton has moved closer to accepting the U.S. labor movement's claim that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement has been bad for America, let's set the record straight before such isolationist nonsense becomes an uncontested dogma in the Democratic presidential race. Read here why, and let us know what you think.

HILLARY CLINTON Y EL LIBRE COMERCIO

2007-11-23T12:23:00.000-05:00

Ahora que la Senadora Hillary Clinton se ha acercado a la posición de los sindicatos de Estados Unidos, según los cuales el Acuerdo de Libre Comercio de Estados Unidos con México y Canadá ha sido malo para los trabajadores norteamericanos, veamos que hay de cierto en semejante afirmación. Leelo todo aqui, y dinos que piensas.

A READER'S THEORY ABOUT CABLE TV'S ANTI-IMMIGRATION CRUSADERS

2007-11-19T18:59:00.000-05:00

Here's a reader's interesting theory - cable tv's anti-immigration crusaders are trying to divert attention from their recent enthusiastic support for the Iraq war:
"Dear sir, thanks for sharing your thoughts in my morning's paper. I might be wrong but my memory tells me that this whole issue of immigration policy was a smoke and mirrors stunt to deflect the heat for the way things were going after "mission accomplished" by O'reilly and Limbaugh. I live near an area with a large hispanic population, including two gangs that are currently under court injunctions. People are shot and stabbed in broad daylight over there! I wouldn't go near that area after dark. and most of those guys are not illegals., in this case mexican americans have been living in oxnard, cal for generations. But i write just to say, ignore the idiot O'reillys of the world they're not worth the time it takes to write a column."
What do you think?

MORE ASIANS, FEWER LATIN AMERICANS IN U.S. UNIVERSITIES

2007-11-19T11:04:00.000-05:00

Here's a new statistic that should sound alarm bells in Latin America: The region is falling increasingly behind China, India and other Asian countries in the number of students it sends to U.S. universities, which are still ranked in international studies as the best in the world. Read the column with the figures of the newly released Open Doors report by the New York-based Institute of International Education (IIE), and let us know what you think.

LA GLOBALIZACION ESTUDIANTIL

2007-11-19T11:00:00.000-05:00

Un estudio que acaba de darse a conocer debería causar alarma en América Latina: la región se está quedando cada vez más atrás de China, India y otros países asiáticos en el número de estudiantes que envía a las universidades de Estados Unidos, que según evaluaciones internacionales siguen siendo las mejores del mundo. Lee aqui la columna sobre el reporte Puertas Abiertas, del Instituto de Educación Internacional (IIE), y dinos que piensas al respecto.

WHO'S CRAZY, ME OR BILL O'REILLY?

2007-11-15T08:43:00.000-05:00

On Nov. 8, I had the distinction of being called ''a crazy columnist'' and a ''nut'' on prime time television by conservative Fox News anchorman Bill O'Reilly for a column I had written about the urgent need for a comprehensive solution to America's immigration crisis. Read my response to O'Reilly here, and let us know what you think. Who is crazier?

LA INMIGRACION, LA TELEVISION Y LA LOCURA

2007-11-15T08:38:00.000-05:00

El 8 de noviembre, tuve el honor de ser llamado repetidamente ''un loco'' en el aire por el conductor conservador de la cadena de televisión Fox News, Bill O'Reilly, a raíz de una columna que escribí pidiendo una solución integral para el problema de la inmigración en Estados Unidos. Lee aqui mi respuesta, y dinos tu opinion.

WHY CHAVEZ'S SPAT WITH THE KING OF SPAIN SHOULD NOT SUPRISE ANYBODY

2007-11-12T17:53:00.000-05:00

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s verbal confrontation with Spain’s King Juan Carlos during the weekend Ibero-American summit of 22 heads of state in Santiago, Chile, shouldn’t come as a big surprise to anyone. It was vintage Chavez -- and the same headline-grabbing strategy used by Cuba’s dictator Fidel Castro before him on similar occasions.
What’s more, after having covered dozens of these regional summits, I would have been surprised if the Venezuelan president had not picked a fight with Spain.
Chavez, as you know, interrupted Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero several times while the latter was addressing the summit, shouting - while his microphone was turned off - that former Spanish President Jose Maria Aznar was a “fascist.” When Spain’s leftist Prime Minister Zapatero, a strong foe of Aznar’s, protested that Aznar had been elected by the Spanish people, and Chavez continued interrupting him pressing on the same issue, a visibly exasperated king shouted to Chavez, “Por que no te callas?,” - “Why don’t you just shut up.”
There are several reasons why this behavior by Chavez should not come as a surprise.
First, Chavez needed to divert attention from the escalating student protests in Venezuela, and the bloody government repression of peaceful demonstrators. Dozens of Venezuelan students were injured last week, many of them by masked gunmen widely believed to be government-backed urban militias, while they were protesting Chavez’s call for a national referendum Dec. 2.
The government-organized referendum seeks to approve constitutional reforms that would among other things allow Chavez to be re-elected indefinitely, appoint his own caretakers in states now ruled by opposition governors, and end with the autonomy of the Central Bank. (Chavez is also offering, as a sweetener to get his reforms approved, to reduce the workday from 8 to 6 hours - an offer that will be hard to resist by millions of Venezuelan workers.)
In addition, Venezuela’s narcissist-Leninist leader thrives on headlines, and the way he makes headlines - like Castro before him - is by picking fights with whoever is around whim who represents the world’s most developed country. In this case, it was Spain’s prime minister, and the Spanish king.
Chavez, like Castro, needs to create conflicts - with business leaders, with the Church, with the United States, with Spain, with whomever -- to create a climate of permanent confrontation that allows him to wrap himself in the national flag, and justify amassing extraordinary powers under the excuse that he is defending the fatherland. If there is no conflict, there is no justification for demanding increasingly wider powers that erode citizens’ basic rights.
Almost every year, when he attended these summits, Cuba’s Castro would grab the headlines by attacking the host country, or the United States, or Spain, or all of the above. Perhaps the only difference between Chavez and Castro is that, I don’t remember any instances in which the Cuban dictator would interrupt other speakers, and try to speak over them outside his allotted time. Chavez did it repeatedly at Saturday’s summit.
Chavez’s personality may be more rowdy than Castro’s, but the reason why his excesses have increased in recent months has to do with oil prices. Chavez’s megalomania, is directly proportional to the rise in oil prices.
When Chavez took office eight years ago, oil prices were at $9 dollars a barrel. Today, they are reaching a record $100 dollars a barrel. So nobody should be surprised either at the fact that Chavez interrupted a fellow head of state, nor by the way in which he did it. If oil prices keep climbing -- in part, thanks to massive U.S. purchases - he’s only going to get worse.

IN VENEZUELA, THERE IS NO FREEDOM "AFTER" EXPRESSION

2007-11-12T16:52:00.000-05:00

Critics of Venezuela's narcissist-Leninist President Hugo Chávez often joke that in Venezuela there is freedom of expression, but not freedom after expression. Last week, their pun proved right. Read why here, and let us know what you think.

LA ESCALADA REPRESIVA EN VENEZUELA

2007-11-12T16:48:00.000-05:00

Los críticos del presidente narcisista leninista venezolano Hugo Chávez suelen bromear que en Venezuela hay libertad de expresión, pero no hay libertad después de la expresión. Los acontecimientos de los ultimos días parecen darles la razón. Lee la columna entera aqui, y dinos que opinas al respecto.

ENFORCEMENT-ONLY IMMIGRATION POLICIES WILL NEVER WORK

2007-11-08T17:51:00.000-05:00

MEXICO CITY -- As was to be expected, a new U.S. congressional study saying that U.S. customs officers fail to stop thousands of undocumented workers a year at airports and other legal entry points has added fuel to U.S. anti-immigration zealots' anxiety levels. This time, their concerns are legitimate. Read the full column here, and let us know your opinion.

LA CORRIENTE AISLACIONISTA

2007-11-08T17:50:00.000-05:00

CIUDAD DE MEXICO - Como era de esperar, los sectores anti-inmigrantes de Estados Unidos han armado un alboroto tremendo tras la publicación del nuevo informe del congreso de Estados Unidos según el cual los agentes fronterizos estadounindenses dejan entrar al país a miles de inmigrantes indocumentados en los aeropuertos y otros puntos de entrada legales todos los años. En este caso, sus preocupaciones son legítimas. Lee la columna entera aqui, y dinos que opinas.

ANGRY MIGRANT UNDERCLASS MIGHT ERUPT IN U.S.A.

2007-11-04T15:53:00.000-05:00

The rapid escalation of the U.S. anti-immigration hysteria -- fueled by ratings-hungry cable-television hotheads and leading Republican presidential hopefuls -- is a dangerous trend: It may lead to a Hispanic intifada that may rock this nation in the not-so-distant future. Read here more about the danger of a "Hispanic intifada," and let us know what you think.

EL PELIGRO DE LA "INTIFADA HISPANA"

2007-11-04T15:50:00.000-05:00

La creciente histeria antiinmigrante que se está dando en gran parte de Estados Unidos -impulsada por conductores de televisión irresponsables en búsqueda de mayores ratings y por los principales aspirantes republicanos a la presidencia- es una tendencia peligrosa: podría resultar en una ''intifada latina'' en un futuro no muy distante. Lee aqui por que, y dinos que opinas.

PERU MAY BE NEXT RISING STAR IN LATIN AMERICA

2007-11-01T08:31:00.000-04:00

When I asked senior World Bank economist Marcelo M. Giugale in a recent television interview which countries will be the economic stars of Latin America over the next 20 years, I was surprised by his answer. The first country he mentioned was Peru. ''Peru?'' I asked, somewhat incredulous. Read the whole column with the data here, and let us know what you think.

?EL MODELO PERUANO?

2007-11-01T08:27:00.000-04:00

Cuando le pregunté a Marcelo M. Giugale, un alto economista del Banco Mundial, qué países serán las estrellas económicas de América Latina dentro de veinte años, me quedé sorprendido por su respuesta: el primer país que mencionó fue Perú. ¿Perú?, le pregunté, algo incrédulo. Lee la columna entera aqui, y dinos que opinas.

ARGENTINA'S PRESIDENT-ELECT IS NO HILLARY CLINTON

2007-10-29T07:43:00.000-04:00

Argentina's first lady Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who according to most polls will win Sunday's presidential elections, has been repeatedly described as ``Argentina's Hillary Clinton.''
She's not. Read here why she's no "Hillary," and let us know what you think.

LA ''HILLARY" ARGENTINA

2007-10-29T07:40:00.000-04:00

La primera dama Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, que según todo parece indicar será la próxima presidenta de Argentina, ha sido descrita repetidamente en los medios como ''la Hillary Clinton argentina.'' Sin embargo, la descripción es algo engañosa. Lee aqui por que, y comparte tu opinion con nosotros.

BUSH'S SPEECH ON CUBA - DOES IT HELP OR HURT DEMOCRACY?

2007-10-25T10:22:00.000-04:00

Should President Bush be making major policy speeches on Cuba, as he did Wednesday? Or does that backfire, giving Cuba's dictatorship much-needed ammunition to claim it's a victim of U.S. aggression? Read my answer here, and let us know what you think.

EL DISCURSO DE BUSH SOBRE CUBA

2007-10-25T10:15:00.000-04:00

Debe el presidente hacer importantes discursos de política sobre Cuba como hizo el miércoles? ¿O es contraproducente, dándole a la dictadura de Cuba la muy necesaria munición para alegar que es víctima de la agresión de Estados Unidos? Lee mi calumna aqui, y dinos que opinas al respecto.

LATIN AMERICAN SCHOOLS GET A "D" IN EDUCATION

2007-10-21T19:37:00.000-04:00

One of the things that struck me the most during a recent visit to India was that amid growing competition for educational excellence children have to pass rigorous admission tests starting at kindergarten. What a difference with what's happening in Latin America! Read the whole column here, and let us know what you think.

LA MEDIOCRIDAD EDUCATIVA

2007-10-21T19:33:00.000-04:00

Una de las cosas que más me impactaron en un viaje reciente a India fue que, como parte de una creciente competencia por la excelencia educativa, los niños deben someterse a rigurosos exámenes de ingreso partir del jardín de infantes. !Qué diferencia con lo que está sucediendo en América latina¡, pensé para mis adentros. Lee la columna entera aqui, y di tu opinion al respecto.

CHAVEZ DESTABILIZES, AND U.S. PAYS THE BILL

2007-10-18T09:44:00.000-04:00

There is no mystery about Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's intent on destabilizing U.S.-backed Latin American democracies: he says so on his own government's website. Find out what Chavez is doing with U.S. $$$ reading the full column here, and let us know what you think.

CHAVEZ DESTABILIZA...CON DOLARES DE USA

2007-10-18T09:42:00.000-04:00

No hay ningún misterio sobre las especulaciones de que el presidente venezolano Hugo Chávez quiere desestabilizar los países latinoamericanos que tienen buenas relaciones con Washington: Chávez lo dice abiertamente en el sitio de internet de su Ministerio de Comunicaciones. Lee todLa la columna aqui, y expresa tu opinion al respecto.

BUSH'S SPEECH ON TRADE WAS GOOD -- TOO BAD HE MADE IT IN MIAMI

2007-10-14T11:52:00.000-04:00

The good news is that President Bush on Friday devoted an entire speech to supporting U.S. free-trade deals with Peru, Colombia and Panama. The bad news is that he did it in pro-free-trade Miami. Read here why I'm somewhat skeptical about Bush's campaign to ratify the pending treaties, and send us your opinion about it.

?SE JUGARA BUSH POR PERU, COLOMBIA Y PANAMA, O SU DISCURSO FUE TEATRO POLITICO?

2007-10-14T11:49:00.000-04:00

La buena noticia es que el presidente George W. Bush dedicó un discurso entero la semana pasada a apoyar los tratados de libre comercio pendientes con Perú, Colombia y Panamá. La mala noticia es que lo hizo en Miami, donde casi todo el mundo está de acuerdo en aprobar los tratados. Lee aqui por que tengo dudas sobre la campana de la Casa Blanca por la aprobacion de los tratados, y dinos que opinas.

IT'S NOT JUST CHINA -- MANY LATIN AMERICAN COUNRIES NOW CHALLENGED BY VIETNAM, CAMBODIA

2007-10-11T10:03:00.000-04:00

Now that Costa Rica has voted to ratify a much-needed free-trade agreement with the United States, the big question for Central American countries -- and much of the rest of Latin America -- is whether that will be enough for them to effectively compete with Asia. I'm afraid it won't. Read here why, and let us know what you think.

ADEMAS DE CHINA, AHORA HAY QUE COMPETIR CON VIETNAM Y CAMBOYA

2007-10-11T09:54:00.000-04:00

Ahora que Costa Rica ha aprobado su muy necesario Tratado de Libre Comercio con Estados Unidos, la gran pregunta para los países centroamericanos -y la mayoría del resto de América Latina- es si eso será suficiente para poder competir exitosamente con los países asiáticos. Me temo que no lo será. Lee aqui por que, y dinos que piensas.

CHERTOFF'S COMMENT ON BORDER FENCE IS PURE NONSENSE

2007-10-07T12:12:00.000-04:00

HERMOSILLO, Mexico -- The people in this northern Mexico city are still shaking their heads in disbelief at Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff's assertion that undocumented immigrants are ''degrading'' the environment on the U.S. border. Look who's talking, they say. Read here what they say and what I think about it, and let us know your opinion.

LA HISTERIA ANTI-INMIGRANTE

2007-10-07T12:09:00.000-04:00

HERMOSILLO, México -- La gente en esta ciudad del norte de México todavía no sale de su asombro ante las declaraciones del Secretario de Seguridad Nacional de Estados Unidos, Michael Chertoff, en el sentido de que los inmigrantes indocumentados están ''degradando'' el medio ambiente en la frontera norteamericana. ''!Que descaro!,'' afirman. Lee aqui por que, lo que pienso sobre las afirmaciones de Chertoff, y dinos que piensas al respecto.

EL ACERCAMIENTO DE URIBE Y CHAVEZ

2007-10-04T11:11:00.000-04:00

Lo que era impensable hasta hace poco está empezando a ser considerando en círculos diplomáticos norteamericanos como un escenario muy probable: que el presidente colombiano Alvaro Uribe se acerque cada vez más a su vecino venezolano Hugo Chávez. Enterate de los motivos de este acercamiento en esta columna, y dinos si estas de acuerdo.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, URIBE WILL MOVE CLOSER TO CHAVEZ

2007-10-04T11:07:00.000-04:00

What was unthinkable until recently is beginning to be considered a likely scenario in U.S. foreign policy circles -- that Colombia's U.S.-backed President Alvaro Uribe will move increasingly closer to Venezuela's anti-American strongman Hugo Chávez. Read the reasons why this is likely to happen in this report, and let is know what you think.

AHMADINEJAD'S DANGEROUS LOVE AFFAIR WITH LATIN AMERICA

2007-09-30T08:14:00.000-04:00

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad must love the tropics. He has spent more time in Latin America than President Bush over the past 12 months, and is promising billions in economic aid to his friends in the region. Last week's visit by Ahmadinejad to Venezuela and Bolivia marked his third trip to the region since September 2006. By comparison, Bush has only made one visit to the region over the same period. Read the full column here, and let us know what you think.

?QUE BUSCA EL PRESIDENTE DE IRAN EN AMERICA LATINA?

2007-09-30T08:13:00.000-04:00

Al presidente iraní Mahmoud Ahmadinejad le debe encantar el clima tropical: en los últimos doce meses, se ha pasado más tiempo en América Latina que el presidente norteamericano George W. Bush. La visita de Ahmadinejad a Venezuela y Bolivia la semana pasada fue su tercer viaje a la región desde septiembre del 2006. Comparativamente, Bush solo ha hecho una visita a la región en el mismo período. Lee el articulo completo aqui, y dinos que opinas al respecto.

AMERICA LATINA: ?CAMPEONA MUNDIAL EN "TRAMITOLOGIA"?

2007-09-27T19:30:00.000-04:00

Qué ironía! China y Vietnam, gobernadas por partidos comunistas, y los países del ex bloque soviético están avanzando mucho más rápido que América Latina en reducir la ''tramitología'' y desmantelar las regulaciones que desalientan las inversiones. Según el nuevo informe del Banco Mundial Haciendo negocios en el 2008, los países de Europea del Este, junto con China, India y Egipto, son los que han realizado más reformas en el último año para facilitar la apertura de nuevas empresa y permitir el despido de trabajadores ineficientes. Lee los detalles aqui, y dinos cual es tu opinion al respecto.

LATIN AMERICA IS SNARLED IN RED TAPE

2007-09-27T08:24:00.000-04:00

What irony! When it comes to cutting government red tape and creating a probusiness atmosphere, communist-ruled China, Vietnam and former Soviet Bloc countries in Eastern Europe are moving much faster than most of Latin America. A new World Bank report -- Doing Business 2008 -- which looks at the ease of doing business in 178 countries around the world, says that countries such as Croatia, Georgia, Estonia, China, India and Egypt were the most aggressive last year in making it easier for entrepreneurs to open a company or fire underperforming workers. Read the details here, and let us know what you think.

EXPERTS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT LATIN AMERICA -- PERHAPS TOO MUCH FORE REGION'S OWN GOOD

2007-09-23T08:53:00.000-04:00

I was really surprised about the level of optimism about Latin America among the top government officials, international economists and business tycoons who attended The Miami Herald Americas Conference last week. It was truly amazing. But was it justified? Read my opinion here, and let us know what YOU think about the region's future.

EL OPTIMISMO SOBRE AMERICA LATINA

2007-09-23T08:49:00.000-04:00

Me sorprendió el grado de optimismo sobre el futuro de América Latina entre los funcionarios gubernamentales, economistas y líderes empresariales que participaron en la Conferencia de las Américas del Miami Herald. Considerando las noticias diarias de la región, fue realmente asombroso. ?Pero es justificado? Lee aqui los motivos por los que soy algo esceptico, y dinos cual es tu opinion al respecto.

LATIN EXPORTS TO U.S. ARE FALLING - THE BIG QUESTION IS WHY

2007-09-16T11:54:00.000-04:00

New U.S. government trade statistics are setting off alarm bells among international traders in this corner of the world: Latin American exports to the United States are showing no growth -- and in many countries they are falling sharply -- amid a worldwide increase in exports to the U.S. market. Read the entire column here, get more figures in the comments section, and let us know whether you agree.

?EL DESPERTAR DE LOS HISPANOS?

2007-09-13T19:41:00.000-04:00

No importa lo que piense sobre el debate presidencial en español de la cadena Univisión - y hay cosas del mismo que me parecieron lamentables - se trató de la muestra más clara de la creciente influencia política hispana que está revolucionando la política de Estados Unidos. Enterate porque aqui, y dinos si estas de acuerdo.

HISPANICS ARE CHANGING THE FACE OF U.S. POLITICS

2007-09-13T11:10:00.000-04:00

Whatever you may think about Sunday's presidential forum on the Spanish-language Univisión network -- and there were some things about it that I found dreadful -- it was the clearest evidence yet of a growing Hispanic clout that will revolutionize American politics. The debate among Democratic hopefuls averaged 2.2 million viewers -- an extraordinary audience for a debate that was broadcast in Spanish for an ethnic group that makes up 13 percent of the U.S. population. By comparison, the CNN-YouTube Democratic debate averaged 2.6 million viewers. Read the whole column here, and let us know whether you agree.

THIS IS WHAT I THINK ABOUT THE UNIVISION DEBATE

2007-09-10T17:54:00.000-04:00

Couple of things: 1) The questions by Jorge Ramos and Maria Elena Salinas were very good; 2) The simulteanous translation was HORRIBLE (the guy who dubbed Sen. Christopher Dodd sounded like a character from Sesame Street); 3) Hillary Clinton, to her credit, criticized Hispanic bashing in the media (a close aide to Clinton was quoted in The New York Times today as saying that she was referring to CNN's Lou Dobbs and radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh) ; 4) Sens. Clinton, Obama and Dodd did so-so when asked why they supported the border fence: instead of saying that they voted so in order to get a path to citizenship for 12 million people without legal status, they tried to defend the border fence (which is a bad idea, as we have said many times, because the only way to reduce the flow of migrants will be reducing the income gap between Mexicans and Americans.) Summing up, the debate was a great idea, but it got lost in translation.

DEMOCRATS MOVE TOWARD APPROVING FREE TRADE DEALS. DO WE HAVE TO THANK CHAVEZ?

2007-09-10T09:54:00.000-04:00

Wow! All of a sudden, it looks like the Democratic-controlled U.S. Congress will approve pending free-trade agreements with Peru, Panama and -- who knows -- perhaps even Colombia.
If you ask me, Venezuela's narcissist-Leninist leader Hugo Chávez deserves the biggest credit for the congressional U-turn. Read the column here, and let us know whether you agree.

EL ''EFECTO CHAVEZ" Y LOS TRATADOS DE LIBRE COMERCIO

2007-09-10T09:50:00.000-04:00

Sorpresa! Contra casi todos los pronósticos, el Congreso de Estados Unidos -controlado por el Partido Demócrata- se está inclinando a aprobar los acuerdos de libre comercio con Perú, Panamá y a lo mejor incluso con Colombia. Si me preguntan a quién hay que agradecerle este giro de la mayoría demócrata, diría que habría que darle el crédito al presidente narcisista leninista de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, y a su campaña por obtener un liderazgo político en la región. Lee aqui la columna entera, y dinos si estas de acuerdo.

DEMOCRATS SHOULD BE GRILLED ON FREE TRADE

2007-09-06T09:06:00.000-04:00

This is the first question I would ask the top Democratic presidential hopefuls at Sunday's first-ever Spanish-language television presidential debate in Coral Gables: How can you claim to be pro-Hispanic and at the same time oppose free-trade deals with Latin America that would benefit both U.S. Hispanics and their native countries? Read here why I would pose that question, and let us know whether you agree.

EL ERROR DE LOS CANDIDATOS DEMOCRATAS

2007-09-06T09:04:00.000-04:00

Esta es la primera pregunta que les haría a los candidatos demócratas cuando se den cita el domingo en Miami para el primer debate presidencial en la televisión en español: ¿Cómo pueden proclamarse los mejores amigos de los hispanos, y al mismo tiempo oponerse a tratados de libre comercio que benefician tanto a los hispanos en Estados Unidos como a sus países de origen? Enterate aqui por que, y dinos si estas de acuerdo.

MEXICO WILL GIVE FINANCIAL REWARDS TO BEST PERFORMING STUDENTS

2007-09-03T10:49:00.000-04:00

If you asked me what was the most significant news from Latin America last week, I would pick a little-noticed announcement by Mexico City's leftist government that it will give out millions of dollars in financial incentives to the elementary school students with the best grades. The Mexico City government announced that it will give about $300 a year in cash and savings' account deposits to about 100,000 public school students aged 4-12 whose grade averages are above nine on a scale from one to 10. Read more about this here, and let us know whether you agree with this idea.

EN MEXICO, OFRECEN DINERO A LOS MEJORES ESTUDIANTES

2007-09-03T10:47:00.000-04:00

Si ustedes me preguntan cuál fue la noticia más significativa de América Latina la semana pasada, escogería una que paso casi desapercibida: El anuncio del gobierno izquierdista de la Ciudad de México de que dará millones de dolares en incentivos financieros a los estudiantes de la escuela primaria con promedios sobresalientes. Lee los detalles del programa aqui, y dinos que te parece.

POVERTY RATE MAY INCREASE THANKS TO CRACKDOWN ON UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS

2007-08-30T09:42:00.000-04:00

If you were shocked by this week's U.S. Census figures showing that there are more than 36.5 million people living in poverty in the United States, get ready: It may get much worse in coming years! Read here the column explaining why the recent U.S. Senate failure to pass an immigration reform bill is likely to increase poverty and inequality, and let us know what you think.

LA POBREZA CRECIO EN EEUU...Y CRECERA AUN MAS

2007-08-30T09:38:00.000-04:00

Si les asombró la nueva revelación del gobierno norteamericano de que hay 36.5 millones de personas viviendo en la pobreza en Estados Unidos, prepárense para más malas noticias: creo que la cifra aumentará en los próximos años.... gracias a una mayoría de republicanos y algunos demócratas en el Senado de Estados Unidos que recientemente votaron en contra de un proyecto de reforma migratoria que hubiese permitido la legalización de muchos de los 12 millones de indocumentados. Lee la columna con todas las cifras aqui, y dinos si estas de acuerdo.

NORTH AMERICAN LEADERS WERE TOO TIMID AT SUMMIT

2007-08-27T11:28:00.000-04:00

The leaders of the United States, Mexico and Canada last week downplayed critics' fears that they are seeking to create a North American Union. Wimps! Instead of being defensive, they should have called for much greater economic integration. READ THE ENTIRE COLUMN HERE, and let us know what YOU think.